Chuck Increases to a 2.1; Should NBC Move Chuck to Different Night?

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/03/30/tv-ratings-dancing-with-the-stars-down-but-dominate-castle-chuck-rise/46581?utm_campaign=WP-TWITTER&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitter

First off, sorry for not posting much this past week. Had tons of errands to run, job interviews. Yes, life was busy =P

But back to last night's episode. Against DWTS and CBS/FOX repeats, Chuck increased to a 2.1 and 5.6 million viewers. That's a nice increase from the lows the past two weeks. While the increases were nice to see, a 2.1 still puts us in the danger zone of being canceled. NBC will probably cancel us with a 2.1. That said, an increase is an increase. The overwhelmingly positive buzz from this episode will not be reflected in last ngiht's ratings, but it could bode well for next week's "faux" finale. I expect a modest increase to a 2.2-2.3 in the demos. Those numbers will put Chuck in a good position to increase its ratings and hopefully be enough to get it another season.

Ever since last year, there's always been discussions about whether Chuck would do better on a different night. The past two years Chuck has held up admirably when other NBC shows failed miserably in the Monday time-slot. But would changing time-slots be beneficial for Chuck?

The answer is of course, though it's not that simple. Moving a show in -mid-season is always a risky procedure. But in Chuck's case, I believe it's a risky move that NBC should take. There are a number of places where NBC could move Chuck:

1. Wednesday 8pm- This is the most popular among Chuck fans. The current occupant, Mercy, had a new low last week of 1.3. FOX's Human target got a 2.0. However, these shows were up against Survivor because NCAA basketball had occupied the Thursday time-slot. But on a regular Wednesday, The highest rated show would garner a 2.3-2.5. Chuck could easily be in second, or even first for the night. Chuck could also increase the average for NBC for that night. However, Wednesday 8pm is notorious for its low household viewership. It's the lowest outside of Friday. But I believe Chuck will be fine because fans will migrate with the show
2. Sunday 8pm- Another potential slot for Chuck. Minute to Win It is not exactly doing gangbusters in the ratings. Competition is less compared to Friday. The only thing we have to worry about is any overrun by sporting events, but that's rare in the spring. Another problem is that there are big events scheduled for Sundays: Super Bowl, Grammys, Oscars. That would hurt continuity and flow of the show. Chuck has shown, albeit later on in the night, that it cold do well on Sundays.
3. Fridays- Now some people might scream this is a bad move, and it could very well be. The prevailing opinion is that any show "exiled" to Fridays means that the show will be soon canceled. However, I'm a glass half full type of person and I say that doesn't have to be the case. As ABC showed last week, they premiered a new show, "Jamie Oliver's Food Revolution", and the show got a 2.6 in the demo. A 2.6!!! ON  A FRIDAY!! This shows that there is an audience for Fridays. Heck, even NBC's WDYTYA is doing reasonably well. Same argument for Chuck goes here. If Chuck can keep its audience from Monday to a Friday, that will be good for the show. This is a long shot, but NBC could bring back Chuck much cheaper and stick it on Fridays. If it holds anything above a 2.0, Chuck could easily stay on Fridays for a couple more seasons. 

I'm with the crowd that NBC should use the upcoming two week break to promote Chuck on a new night. But I doubt that will happen because NBC is showing repeats of Chuck Monday nights, which seems to indicate NBC will keep Chuck on Mondays the rest of the year. 

Speculation: The Fate of Chuck and NBC

Over the weekend, TVBTN posted the dates in which the broadcast networks will announce their schedule for the 2010-2011 TV season. It is getting to that time of year where pilots will begin filming, and in a few weeks networks will start watching those pilots. Come May, we'll have a good idea as to what the networks are favoring and how the pilot development is doing.

First off though, an update on the ratings from last Friday and why WDYTYA will be renewed.

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/03/20/tv-ratings-cbs-wins-with-march-madness-who-do-you-think-you-are-kitchen-nightmares-perform-solidly/45563

No surprise that CBS won the night with college basketball. FOX did well with Kitchen Nightmares  with a 1.9 in the demo. What's somewhat surprising is how NBC's Who Do You Think You Are? is doing. It got a 1.7 in the demos and over 7 million viewers. It's been fairly steady ever since its premiere 3 weeks ago, staying in the 1.7-1.8 range. While WDYTYA is a reality show (and I know a lot of people hate reality TV), I must say that this show is entertaining and very interesting. WDYTYA is a remake of a British version (very popular in Britain). The British version started off slowly but grew into a hit. WDYTYA looks to be doing the same.

Now, because I'm a fan of Chuck, the most logical question what does this mean for Chuck? At this moment, it's really hard to say. The 1.9 that Chuck got the past 2 weeks is horrible and would definitely get the show canceled. The question is whether this was a blip on the radar screen or something more worrying.

It's very hard to determine what NBC will do with its lineup. The Marriage Ref has been doing fairly well on Thursday, getting a 2.8 in the demo. It looks like the show will stay around for next season. Same goes for WDYTYA. But now we have to look at NBC's pilot orders:


http://www.thefutoncritic.com/devwatch.aspx?series=&network=nbc&daycode=2&statuscode=1&genre=drama&studio=

NBC has ordered 10 drama and 11 comedy pilots. remember not all will be picked up and the pick-up rate of pilots are low. However, this is NBC and they've been on record saying they'll be looking to pick up 5 or 6 drama pilots and 4 or 5 comedy pilots. Of course, this depends on how their pilots develop.

NBC (and all other broadcast networks) have 19 hours to fill. For NBC during the fall, 4 of those hours are taken away because of Sunday night Football. That leaves NBC with 15 hours to fill.

Sure pickups:
Law & Order: SVU
Law & Order <---- Based on comments from Angela Bromstad
The Biggest Loser (2 hours)
The Office/30Rock/Community/ Parks & Rec. (2 hours)
Dateline 

Looking Good for Renewal:
The Marriage Ref
Who Do You Think You Are?
Celebrity Apprentice (The original "Apprentice" is being rebooted)

One The Bubble:
Chuck
Parenthood
Heroes (only because Chuck has dipped to Heroes levels)
Minute to Win It

Canceled:
Trauma
Mercy

With 9 hours seemingly filled in the fall, that leaves NBC with 6 hours to fill. Here's what a prospective lineup could look like. remember, this is only speculation on my part.

Monday
8- New
9- New
10- New

Tuesday
8- Biggest Loser
9- Biggest Loser
10- New

Wed
8- Marriage Ref and/or The Apprentice (reboot)
9- New
10- LO: SVU

Thurs.
8- Comedy/ Comedy (Community/Parks & Rec mid season)
9- The Office/ 30 Rock
10- New

Fri
8- WDYTYA? or New Reality
9- Law & Order
10- Dateline

Sun (after football)
7- Dateline
8- Reality/ New Show
9- Celeb. Apprentice
10- Celeb. Apprentice

I believe that NBC will want to debut as many new shows as possible. Angela Bromstad was on record saying that 10pm will all be scripted. That could change, of course, but I'll take her word.  The above schedule has NBC debuting 6 hours of new shows. I believe 5 hours will be dramas and NBC will try to launch another comedy block. 6 hours may seem like a lot, but ABC this fall debuted 8 hours of new programming.

Now some may ask: "But what happens when a show fails?" I believe that's where the "bubble" shows come into play. This year, NBC did not make contingency plans in case Leno failed. And it has showed in the schedule. NBC had to order more episodes of lowly rated shows (Trauma and Mercy) and they ran out of shows to fill in gaps (see LO:SVU repeat at 9pm Wednesdays). NBC won't make that same mistake next year.

NBC will need to have shows for mid-season. Does that include Chuck and/or Parenthood? It's really hard to determine at this moment. Chuck got hit hard the past two weeks and Parenthood has not shown its ratings have hit a bottom yet. It may seem logical for NBC to renew these two shows, but since the ratings are low, it's hard to determine what NBC will do. And even Heroes looks good to NBC right now. I hate to say this, but if Chuck and heroes are getting the same ratings, Heroes will win out because the show generates more money from international distribution and DVD sales, in which all the $$$ goes to NBC Universal.

For Chuck, it will come down to two things:

1. What the ratings are going to be from here on out
2. How much lower is Warner Bros. willing to go in terms of license fees.

In the coming weeks, we'll have a much clearer picture as to how the bubble shows will do and what direction NBC will head for next season.

DWTS Crushes Competition; Chuck Steady; CBS Drops

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/03/23/tv-ratings-dancing-with-the-stars-chuckstable-at-low-levels/45782

Against the premiere of DWTS (23.89 million, 6.3 demo), Chuck held steady, albeit at the low end of ratings, averaging 5.43 million viewers and a 1.9 in the demos.

CBS dropped noticeably, with the entire CBS comedy lineup falling over 2 million viewers and 0.5 in the demos. You can probably chalk that up to the debut of DWTS.

I'm not going to provide much commentary as I have a post coming much that pretty much sums up what NBC could do with Chuck and what NBC's schedule could look like for next season.

DST: Are People Finally Adjusting?

The ratings for Wednesday and Thursday has showed little change compared to last week. Looking at how DST wrecked havoic on Monday and Tuesday, are people finally adjusting to DST? Hard to say. First, here are the ratings for:

Wednesday
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/03/18/tv-ratings-idol-paces-fox-human-target-on-the-bubble-ugly-betty-sinks-to-lows/45371

Thursday
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/03/19/tv-ratings-march-madness-upsets-thursday-flashforward-return-fizzles/45367

Wednesday saw no noticeable changes compared to last week. CBS and ABC were mostly in repeats so it's hard to gauge the effect of DST. Same goes for Thursday. CBS was not airing its original programming because of March Madness, and FOX was in repeats as well.

NBC saw no noticeable changes at 8pm.

The return of FlashForward on ABC was uneventful. Averaging a 1.9 in the demo will certainly get the show canceled. That's too bad, because the show had an intriguing premise. Execution was a problem. It seems like they're hitting their strides the last couple of episodes, but that may be too late.

DST Continues Its Beatdown on Network TV

Daylight savings time (DST) has once again hit network TV hard. Again, here are the numbers provided by TVByTheNumbers:

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/03/17/tv-ratings-fox-but-lost-ncis-parenthood-and-many-other-fall/45237

All shows were down last night compared to the previous week. With the exception of American Idol (down just 2%), everything else was down 10% or more. NCIS, NCIS:LA, The Biggest Loser and Parenthood each hit season lows.

In regards to Biggest Loser, I'm still puzzled as to why this show has taken such a beating post-Olympics. The ratings BL is getting at 9pm is what it should be getting at the 8pm hour, with higher ratings at 9pm. Which leads me to Parenthood. The show is still eroding, getting 5.95 million viewers and a 2.3 in the demo, both series lows. However, I'm willing to bet that NBC expected much higher ratings, but that's with BL doing better. The subsequent drop in BL  has hit Parenthood accordingly.

Back to DST and its effect on network TV and, of course, Chuck. Looking at data from Monday and last night's shows, each show is getting hit with a 0.3, 0.4 demo drop and a good chunk of the total viewership. The point is that less people are watching TV because of DST. So the drop in ratings for Chuck Monday night has more to do with DST than “quality” of the show. It’s not Chuck that’s dropping, but every other show on network TV.

Will DST strike again for the Wednesday shows? I say likely.

(UPDATE) DST Destroys Broadcast TV; Chuck, House Down 17%

Well, I didn't see this coming. First, the ratings courtesy of TVByTheNumbers

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/03/16/tv-ratings-chuck-vs-daylight-savings-time-drops-big/45105

Chuck-5.78 million, 1.9 18-49 demos. Half hour numbers increased from a 1.8 to 2.0. The good thing is that we at least increased to a 2.0 in the demos. Also, Chuck was #2 among all broadcast channels in the demo men 18-34 for the time period. So there's at least a little bit of good news. Here's the link to the info:

http://www.rbr.com/tv-cable/tv-cable_ratings/22396.html
Both Chuck and House dropped 17% compared to last week. Some have attributed the drop to daylight savings time (DST). And according to TVBTN, there were 10% less people watching TV compared to last week (broadcast and cable). So everything on TV, broadcast or cable, was down, at least for the 8pm hour which would have taken the brunt of the hit. To those who love to bash TPTB for this ratings drop, I guess you can blame them too for the ratings drop among ALL channels. Boy did TPTB piss off other show's viewers too ;-)

But no matter which way you cut it, a 1.9 will not get the show renewed. We'll know more in the coming weeks whether this is just a blip on the radar or a trend.

In terms of demos, this is a series low for Chuck. The previous series low was a 2.1 (using final numbers) which was reached a couple of times during the last half of the season. In terms of viewership, this is not the lowest the series has seen. That would be for "Broken Heart", which got 5.6 million viewers. 

In regards to DST affecting TV, we'll know more the next couple of days. If Tuesday-Thursday see similar drops, the we'll know that DST does indeed have a significant impact on TV ratings, at least for the 8pm hour. My prediction? We'll see similar drops, at least for the 8pm hour. It's not going to look pretty for the 8pm hour this week.

Ouch for Parenthood

First I just want to mention that I'm a fan of 'Parenthood'. It's not as good as Chuck, but Parenthood is a good hour of television.

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/03/10/tv-ratings-fox-tops-night-parenthood-slips-lost-gains-melrose-place-invisible/44485
With that said, the ratings for Parenthood fell in its second outing, averaging 6.07 million viewers and a 2.6 in the demo. What's more troubling is the drop during the second half hour. Droping to 5.7 million and a 2.5 demo is not what NBC had in mind for this show. It's pretty safe to say that NBC at least expected a 3.0 given its lead-in. While a 2.6 is still OK, NBC is not thrilled with those numbers.

Speaking of the lead-in, what the heck happen to The Biggest Loser? Prior to the Olympic break it was getting high 3's, sometimes low 4's in the demos. It looks like the break as hurt BL more than any other show.

Chuck Dips a Little; Rest of NBC Lineup Down

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/03/09/tv-ratings-chuck-drops-a-touch-two-and-a-half-men-hits-highs-nbc-dead-last/44300

Chuck averaged 6.31million viewers and a 2.3 in the demos. That's down 400k viewers, but only 0.1 in the demo. The demo is all that really matters.

There's some discussion on the boards about what constituted the ratings drop. Some mentioned House returning. Some mentioned CBS comedies, namely Rules of Engagement (RoE) having a better retention rate than Accidentally on Purpose (AoP), and my favorite (not really): blaming the ratings drop on the last two episodes of Chuck.

People keep on forgetting that House was a repeat last week. RoE retaining more of HIMYM could've hurt Chuck, but looking at the ratings it looks to be a non-issue. Chuck is still getting roughly the same pre-RoE debuting.

Regarding last week's episode, that episode was much more well received than 3.07, so I don't buy the argument that people hated the last two episodes equaling ratings drop. 3.07 had a 2.2 demo and 3.09 had a 2.3. If people really hated the episode, it would've dropped below 2.2. So the argument "people hating the last 2 episodes= ratings drop" doesn't hold much water.

The Bachelor was getting demos that DWTS would've got. It's comparable. It's the viewership numbers that are much higher because of the older demographic watching, and that could hurt Chuck. However, I don't see Chuck's ratings moving much either way. It will stay in the 2.3-2.5 range all season.

****************

NBC has bigger problems than worrying about Chuck. The return of Trauma (1.4 demo) and L&O moving to the 10pm (1.5 demo) cratered in the ratings. what's surprising is that L&O is getting lower ratings compared to its Friday time slot. I attribute that to competition. CSI: Miami pretty much has the same audience with L&O.

CBS and FOX are doing their customary thing, finishing 1 and 2 for the night.







And I just noticed this. Chuck actually has more competition this season, namely from CBS. BBT/HIMYM last year- 3.6, HIMYM/RoE- 3.75 demos. 

The good thing though, Chuck is up compared to the second half of last year, up 0.15 in the demos and 400k viewers. Thanks to snickrz for those numbers. 

THR: Bromstad on Fall Pilots, Chuck, Heroes

http://www.thrfeed.com/2010/03/qa-nbcs-angela-bromstad.html?

Here's the relevant Chuck info:

THR: "Chuck" -- a bit surprising on Mondays?

Bromstad: Pleasant surprise, and they're doing great work.

THR: So fans presumably won't have to buy Subway sandwiches again this year?

Bromstad: Well, it's got to maintain, and it depends on development.

It isn't much, but when you compare to the other bubble shows that were mentioned, Heroes and Community, Bromstad seems much more hopeful with Chuck.

I think it's interesting that she's "pleasantly surprised" at how Chuck is performing. It's probably due to the fact that NBC had low expectations for the show, and they didn't expect Chuck to be their highest-rated show on Monday. Add to the fact that Chuck is the 2nd highest rated drama on NBC, behind Law & Order: SVU. It seems like that Chuck has to maintain its ratings (2.4+) and it looks good for season 4.

The statement "depends on development" is just executive talk. That's mention every year, so there's nothing to be worried about with that statement.

Other things to note:

1. 10 pm hour will likely be all scripted, at least Monday through Thursday. 
2. NBC plans on picking up 5 or 6 dramas, and 4 or 5 comedies
3. NBC has a good working relationship with Warner Bros. 
4. JJ Abrams pilot 'Undercovers' looks good for a pick-up
5. Thursday comedy block will likely stay in tact  

So what does this all mean for Chuck? The outlook is hopeful =D

'Parenthood' Premieres with OK Ratings

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/03/03/tv-ratings-american-idol-leads-easy-fox-win-parenthood-debuts-modestly-lost-falls/43694

Parenthood averaged 8.1 million viewers and a 3.1 in the demo. That's fairly good for NBC, but with the amount of promotion that NBC put into it, they will no doubt be disappointed with those numbers. Will Parenthood be able to hold on to those numbers? Shows usually fall after the premiere, so the question: how far will it fall?

Chuck Returns With Uptick in Ratings

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/03/02/tv-ratings-back-to-fourth-place-for-nbc-big-numbers-for-the-bachelor-and-the-big-bang-theory/43503?utm_campaign=WP-TWITTER&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitter

Chuck averaged 6.7 million viewers and a 2.4/6 in the demos. That's a healthy increase from the last new episode 3 weeks ago. House was in repeat for FOX, but everything else was original.

Ever since Chuck debuted on NBC, NBC has not been able to find a show that fits well with Chuck. I don't know why NBC thought Heroes was a good fit with Chuck, but that did not prove to be true this season. LO has a totally different viewership, and that shows in its demo. The demo for LO is much older, hence why LO has a higher viewership number but dropped in the 18-49 demos.

The good thing about last night's ratings is that we probably have seen a floor, but we'll know more for sure next week. Next week will have all originals so we may see a slight drop in the ratings. However, the following week, HIMYM will be in repeat and ABC will be airing a 20/20 special, which should help Chuck out.

Things are looking good for Chuck.

Chuck Ratings Predictions (and other Ratings news)

Today marks the day Chuck returns from a 2 week hiatus thanks to the Olympics. If anyone had been following the ratings for the Olympics, NBC has been on a roll. Sadly, there was a lack of promos but that's understandable because NBC had to fix the 10pm hour and promote its new shows.

Having said that, I'd guess Chuck will get 6.7 million and a 2.4 in the demos. Is that too optimistic? Nah lol =P But I wouldn't be surprised if it's lower than that. The next two weeks will be key though as to see where the show will be headed in terms of ratings.

And other news, the USA/Canada gold medal game drew huge ratings, drawing 27.6 million viewers, the most watched Hockey game since the 1980 "Miracle on Ice" game. Here's the press release via TVByTheNumbers.

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/03/01/usa-vs-canada-gold-medal-hockey-most-watched-game-in-30-years-with-27-6-million/43413

As a hockey fan (Go LA Kings!!) I'm ecstatic with those numbers. Hockey should at least be on par with popularity with baseball, and I just hope this game exposes more people to how hockey games can be. 

Still Here

I'm waiting for my favorite shows to come back (i.e. Chuck and Bones). As of right, there's not much to write about in terms of ratings except the Olympics, which has been kicking butt, but the last two nights have fallen below what NBC got in Torino. If you want to see what the Olympics are getting, head over to TVByTheNumbers

http://tvbythenumbers.com/

Next week will have new episodes of Chuck, so this blog will be updated in a more timely manner.

Mid Season Report- Bubble Shows

Last week numerous media types had articles out about the status of numerous bubble shows. Here are two of the most reliable.

http://www.thrfeed.com/2010/02/endangered-shows-status-report-24-Chuck-smallville-v-fringe.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+live_feed+%28The+Hollywood+Reporter+-+The+Live+Feed%29&utm_content=Twitter

http://www.thewrap.com/ind-column/judgment-day-tv-town-whatll-get-axed-what-wont-14177

Both articles point to good news about Chuck. Though it's still fairly early, things do look good. But it's important not to be overly confident, but cautiously optimistic =D The ratings that will matter the most will be post-Olympics. But I see Chuck being fine, and hopefully for a 4th season. 

Winter Olympics Ratings UPDATE (2/20)

So for the late update. As you can see from my previous post about the Olympics, I guessed 37.5 million viewers. That was a tad bit high =P Here are the actuals:

Friday- 32.6 million/ 9.4 18-49 demo
Sat- 26.2 million/ 7.9 18-49
Sun- 26.3 million/ 7.0 18-49
Mon- 25.49 million/ 7.2 18-49
Tues- 20.41 million/ 5.4 18-49  <-------Against American Idol
Wed- 29.26 million/  8.9 <-----Against AI
Thurs- 25.21 million/ 7.1
Fri- 23.22 million/ 5.2

$$$ and Cents

From an old post of mine over at ChuckTV trying to explain the dollar figures that go into TV shows. If the post reads a little bit funny, it's because I did a quick copy and paste. Too lazy to edit it =P

***************************

It all depends if NBC is making money off Chuck. NBC paid for the show cheaper this year with essentially the same ratings it got last year. Given that everything else on NBC is down (except Biggest Loser), Chuck is one of their "bright" spots. Chuck is, as of now, their highest rated hour-long program. That won't last because SVU will be moved back to where it should be (10pm) and Parenthood will get an awesome lead-in from the BL.

In terms of cost, here's a rough chart of what shows are getting per 30 second ad spots:

http://adage.com/article?article_id=139923#mon

For NBC, Heroes is definitely not getting that much per 30 sec. ad. In fact, none of the NBC shows are getting those rates because of their crappy ratings except BL and The Office. Time for some rough estimates and math. For every show, there's roughly 36 spots, and say about 8 of those spots are given to local affiliates. Since Chuck is not on the chart, lets say Chuck gets around $85,000 per spot. NBC gets roughly $2.38 million per episode. Now, the question is: How much did NBC pay for the show per episode? Anything below the $2.38 million NBC obviously makes money. And we don't know how much Subway put into the show, so that probably will drive the license fee down a tiny bit more. Another question is if WB makes any money off the show (likely not), but lets keep it simple.

Another question to ask: Can NBC put anything into Chuck's time-slot that will do better? The answer is most likely no. Heroes was getting roughly what Chuck is getting now in the fall, but that show is way more expensive to produce.

It's important to remember that this is NBC. Jeff Gaspin has mentioned numerous times that he wants to "improve" ratings, and not necessarily beat other shows. He wants to see improvement. Slow and steady growth in ratings, eventually you'll be able to beat the big guys. Chuck has held steady compared to last year, and when all of NBC is down, Chuck certainly looks good for NBC.

Winter Olympics- Ratings (and Chuck)

I'm on the west coast so I'd have to watch the Opening Ceremony on tape delay (east coast bias =P). for some reason I couldn't find the ratings for the 2006 winter Olympics. But I guess that doesn't matter because 2002 will be a better barometer of how the ratings will turn out.

2002 Winter Games was held in Salt Lake City, Utah. Because it was in North America, the Games, (and NBC), enjoyed the highest rated Games to date, with over 45 million people tuning in. And throughout the 2 week affair, NBC averaged 31 million viewers a night.

2006 saw a huge drop in the ratings. It averaged only 20.2 million viewers. The biggest reason was because of location: It was located in Italy. All of the broadcasts on NBC were on tape delay, and results were readily available online, thus robbing the telecasts the drama and viewers they wanted. 

And the Games are back in North America, this time on the West Coast in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. And ratings are expected to be much higher because the majority of events will be aired live on the east coast.

So what will Games get in the ratings? NBC should see anywhere between 35-45 million viewers. I'll guess 37.5 million for the Opening Ceremony, and NBC will average 25-30 million over the two weeks.

Now why did I mention Chuck in the title? Chuck was scheduled to return the day after the Olympics. NBC was going to give it ample promotion over the two weeks. And it seemed like a great plan since NBC was no doubt going to garner high ratings for those two weeks. But of course, Chuck was brought back early because NBC was in the crapper. And as mentioned in my previous posts. Chuck is doing just fine.

But how would the show fare if NBC had waited until March 1st to air the premiere? I have no clue and it's kind of pointless to guess at this stage. But you'd have to wonder what Chuck would've gotten in the ratings with promos that will be seen by 20-30 million people a night.

The Nuances of the Nielsen Ratings System

Just did a quick look at the final ratings for Chuck, and this is where the quirkiness of the ratings come into play. A couple of points, and I hope I don't lose you in this:

*WARNING- LOTS OF NUMBERS AHEAD*

The previous low for Chuck this season was 3.04, which got 6.65 million viewers and a 2.5 in the demo. And it got a 3.8/6 household rating/share

This week, Chuck got 6.596 million viewers and a 2.2 in the demo. Household rating/share for this episode was a tiny bit higher- 3.9/6

So what does this mean?

Demos are the most important factor in terms of a show's renewal. But what do they really mean in terms of how many people are watching? Let's provide some hard numbers.

For example, Chuck's latest episode garnered a 2.2. So what does that mean? It means that 2.2% of adults 18-49 are watching Chuck that night. The lastest number I could find from Nielsen is that there are 132 million people in the 18-49 bracket. Just simple multiplication, and you have 2.9 million viewers in the 18-49 for last nights episode.

For households, there are 114.9 million TV households in the U.S. So a 3.9 household means that 3.9% of households are tuning in.

So having said that:

In terms of households, there were actually more households tuning in compared to 3.04, and yet we had less viewers and a much worse demo. Chuck had nearly 115,000 more HH tuning in. So why less viewers? That can be attributed to the fact that the households that were watching had less people in them, thus the lower viewership numbers. Oh btw, Chuck had the same HH number as last week.

Which brings me to my other point: Viewership drop doesn't correspond to demo drop.

Comparing the two lowest rated episodes to date (3.04 and 3.07) Chuck only lost 54,000 viewers. Now that doesn't look to bad of a drop right? But that doesn't really matter much in terms of renewal. In terms of 18-49 demos, Chuck lost a much larger 396,000 viewers  :'(  So how can Chuck lose so much demo and so little in total viewership? That means more <17 year olds and 50+ are watching Chuck then the 18-49 group. While that's great and all, we don't need those viewers  :P What we need is people in the 18-49.

What was the point of all this? No clue  :P If you dig deep into the numbers, the fan base is still mostly intact. It's just different people are tuning in. There's no deep "erosion" in Chuck, except for the demos.

As Seen on Chucktv.net: Chuck vs. The Ratings- Numbers, Demos, Trends, and Charts

What It All Means and Why Chuck Is Well Positioned for Season 4 

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Ever since the second season there has been a strong fascination about Chuck’s ratings. What do the ratings mean? Are the ratings good enough for another season? Is it time for fans to worry? Time to start up another “Save Chuck” campaign? Short answer: Chuck is doing okay in the ratings. Last nights drop to a 2.2 (still preliminary) is worrisome, but remember it’s still early in the season. Yes Chuck is on the bubble once again, but it’s still a relatively strong performer for NBC.

It’s important to remember that the demographics 18-49 are the most important number to focus on and that’s what I’ll be referring to. Why? That’s what advertisers use to set their ad rates for the upcoming season, thus networks follow suit. Viewership numbers are not entirely useless, but it doesn’t matter much to advertisers. If you want to read more about the ratings and what the numbers mean, head over to TVByTheNumbers.com.

Current Ratings

There has been some concern about the recent ratings drop. The charts below show the ratings, in demos and viewership, for season 3 to date.

Now the charts don’t look too good, right? In fact, the charts make it look worse than it really is. What we should be focusing on is episodes 3.03 onward. Why? The first two episodes of Chuck aired on a Sunday, a night with totally different competition and viewership. And as with any premiere episodes, ratings will tend to be inflated, so to speak. It’s only natural for shows in their second outings to drop. This is not unique to Chuck, but quite common amongst the majority of TV shows.

Another important thing to remember is that since NBC scheduled the Sunday premiere event, Nielsen (who provides the ratings) does not add those numbers to the season average since those were “specials”. Only episodes not deemed “specials” (i.e. aired in its regular time-slot) will be counted in the averages. So the averages will not include the first 2 episodes.

Having said that, are the ratings from 3.03 onward ominous? Not necessarily. To date, Chuck is averaging 2.44 in the demos. That makes Chuck the 3rd highest scripted show on NBC, behind The Office and 30 Rock, and the highest rated hour-long scripted programming. It’s amazing that a show, once on the verge of cancellation, has become one of NBC’s few bright spots.

Note: It’s likely that Chuck will not be the highest rated hour-long program post-Olympics with Parenthood after the The Biggest Loser (NBC’s most-watched program), getting a significant lead-in to boost/inflate its numbers. Also, Law & Order: SVU will be moving back to 10pm, its rightful place and most likely will have better ratings. This should not affect Chuck in terms of renewal.

Comparing Season 2 & Season 3

Some may argue “but look at the trajectory of the ratings. It’s going down, not stabilizing”. This is where looking at past ratings will help put things into perspective.

It’s important to remember that Chuck’s current crop of competition- The Bachelor/Dancing with the Stars, CBS comedies, and House - was only the same post-Super Bowl of last year. Chuck had the courtesy of going up against Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles in fall 2008, a far weaker show compared to House. So, for an apples-to-apples comparison, lets take a look at how Chuck did during the last half of season 2 (2.13-2.22).

From episode 2.13 up to the season 2 finale, Chuck averaged a 2.26 in the demo. Going up against The Bachelor (three episodes), Chuck averaged 2.33. When Dancing with the Stars debuted, Chuck averaged 2.23. The drop you see from 2.15 to 2.16 was due to the debut of DWTS. Every show that night saw drops in their ratings. So that begs the question: Will Chuck face a similar drop in ratings? Most likely, but it’s nothing to be alarmed at. What we can look forward to is that DWTS should not be debuting as strongly as last season. If their fall performance was any indication, DWTS should be weaker this season. Plus, as indicated in the chart, Chuck regained its entire demo that it lost initially to DWTS.

So comparing the ratings, Chuck is currently averaging 2.44 compared to 2.26 during the last half of last season. In terms of viewership, the show gained 770,000 more viewers. Amazingly, Chuck is on par with the first half of the second season when it was up against weaker competition (2.53 vs. 2.5) (6.68 vs. 6.88 million viewers) More importantly, there’s a trend in the ratings that can be seen in all three season of Chuck.

Chuck Ratings To Date

 

Note: In season 1, episodes 1.12 and 1.13 aired on a Thursday as a special “Chuck Sandwich” night. Chuck was off the air for 7 weeks and then brought back to finish its episodes during the writers strike.
It’s fascinating that in all three seasons of Chuck, the show has hit a bottom around episode 6. From there, it has slowly increased. Even in the second half of last season, Chuck ended on an uptrend after hitting bottom, yes, at the 6th episode of the second half of the season. Unfortunately, we don’t know if season 3 has seen a bottom yet, and we won’t know for at least a month.

Will season 3 continue the trend of Chuck increasing its ratings as the season progresses? According to past seasons, it should, barring a change in Chuck’s competition.

Chuck has endured a lot of headwinds. It survived the writers strike. It had to deal with FOX moving House opposite of Chuck. It had to deal with President Obama’s news conference, which effectively killed any momentum the show had from the 3D episode. For its premiere this season, Chuck had to deal with the 150th episode of The Simpsons, which FOX moved up to go up against Chuck. FOX also moved up House to compete against the second night of Chuck’s premiere event, then scheduled the premiere of 24 for the following week. Chuck had to go up against the 100th episode of How I Met Your Mother. And yet, the show just gave those shows the big middle finger. But it does make you wonder what Chuck’s ratings would’ve been had FOX not moved up their two big shows.

The Big Picture

Chuck is one of the few shows on ANY network, to hold its audience from last season. The long break and the new element of the show (Intersect 2.0) did not hurt the show as many had feared. Holding your audience from last season, even if it’s a small but very passionate base like Chuck’s, is a very good thing in the TV industry when year after year there’s less people watching broadcast television.
There are many things working in favor of Chuck moving forward:

1. Cancellation of The Jay Leno Show- The only reason Chuck was on the bubble last season was because of Jay Leno. When NBC effectively cut 5 hours of prime-time, it put a bunch of shows on the bubble that would otherwise be safe. Because NBC was in such dire straits last year, shows with 2.3+ demos would’ve been safe. Now with 5 more hours free, NBC has a bunch of holes in its schedule. NBC will try to plug those holes with new shows, and that’s evident with its big order of pilots. But don’t take that as a sign Chuck may soon be, um, “chucked”. On average, networks pick up 20-25% of their pilots. Not a very high percentage. For a network like NBC, having known shows with adequate ratings is much safer and the network could use those shows to grow new shows.
2. Impending cancellation of Trauma and/or Mercy – Neither show can even crack a 2.0 in demos. Both shows are likely gone, thus opening up more hours, making Chuck’s 2.44 look even better.
3. It’s on NBC- NBC is doing even worse this season. Leno failed epically. None of NBC’s new shows caught on. Former ratings giant LO:SVU got killed at the 9pm hour. Chuck is the only show to hold, even grow its audience.
4. Subway and Honda- Now I don’t really know what the financials are, but when you have a corporation that helped save the show (Subway) and another actively advertising on the show (Honda), it helps with negotiations come renewal time when you have corporations wanting to advertise on your show.

The season is still young and the ratings will fluctuate week after week. The ratings post-Olympics will be very important. If Chuck can hold to a 2.4-2.5 average in the demos, things look very good for a season 4. Chuck will have fairly smooth sailing until DWTS debuts on March 29th, bolstered by the promos NBC will air during the Olympics when it has a larger audience than its seen in years. Anything below a 2.4 average, it’s time to worry, but it’s definitely not the end of Chuck.

Another important thing to remember: Don’t focus on how Chuck does against the competition. It’ll probably stay in 4th place unless it goes up against repeats. Rather, focus on how Chuck does relative to other shows on NBC. That’s all that really matters at this point.

There will still be some hand-wringing about the ratings, and that’s fine. But it’s also important to remember that Chuck, at this point, is doing okay. Yes I’m a little bit worried, but it’s still early in the season. It’s more important how we do in March and April, especially April since that’s when NBC will make its decision on season 4. Having said that, I’m still cautiously optimistic for season 4.

Credit: All charts courtesy of snickrz.
Source for ratings info: pifeedback.com and TVByTheNumbers. If you want to follow ratings for Chuck or any other show, those two websites do a fabulous job reporting the numbers.

Welcome!

Just wanted to introduce myself. Fellow Chucksters will know me as buymoriaking on the amazing fansite Chucktv.net as well on the NBC boards. Or if you want to get a little personal, you can call me Vinny =D.

Now why am I starting this blog? Main reason is because I'm very much interested in how the Nielsen ratings system works and all its nuances and intricacies. And I have the TV show Chuck to thank. Before watching Chuck, I had no idea what ratings mean, what constitutes as a "good ratings" and "bad ratings". Like many casual fans out there, you would think total viewership numbers is what determines renewal. Wrong. It's all about demos, demos, demos. If you want to read up about ratings, head over to TVByTheNumbers.

Other than Chuck, I'm a fan of other TV shows such as Bones, The Big Bang Theory, LOST, Smallville, Dollhouse, and reality fare such as Mythbusters, Dirty Jobs, Deadliest Catch, and Man vs. Wild.

Now a little bit about myself. I'm a recent college graduate from the University of California Irvine, class of 2009. And sadly for me and many other recent college graduates, I'm unemployed at the moment =(. Hobbies of mine include:

• Going to the gym. There are certain weeks where I'll go everyday, and them some days where I'm just lazy as hell. but on average, I'll try to go 4 times a week.
• Love playing basketball. Though not very tall, I'm a deadly shooter ;-D

Now what will this blog be about? It will be commentary on ratings of my favorite shows listed above, but in general will mention other shows as well. There will be episode commentary whenever I have the time (i.e. when I'm not lazy) and other news about the TV industry.

So I hope you enjoy the posts and see them as informative and entertaining.