Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Still Here

I'm waiting for my favorite shows to come back (i.e. Chuck and Bones). As of right, there's not much to write about in terms of ratings except the Olympics, which has been kicking butt, but the last two nights have fallen below what NBC got in Torino. If you want to see what the Olympics are getting, head over to TVByTheNumbers

http://tvbythenumbers.com/

Next week will have new episodes of Chuck, so this blog will be updated in a more timely manner.

Saturday, February 20, 2010

Mid Season Report- Bubble Shows

Last week numerous media types had articles out about the status of numerous bubble shows. Here are two of the most reliable.

http://www.thrfeed.com/2010/02/endangered-shows-status-report-24-Chuck-smallville-v-fringe.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+live_feed+%28The+Hollywood+Reporter+-+The+Live+Feed%29&utm_content=Twitter

http://www.thewrap.com/ind-column/judgment-day-tv-town-whatll-get-axed-what-wont-14177

Both articles point to good news about Chuck. Though it's still fairly early, things do look good. But it's important not to be overly confident, but cautiously optimistic =D The ratings that will matter the most will be post-Olympics. But I see Chuck being fine, and hopefully for a 4th season. 

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Winter Olympics Ratings UPDATE (2/20)

So for the late update. As you can see from my previous post about the Olympics, I guessed 37.5 million viewers. That was a tad bit high =P Here are the actuals:

Friday- 32.6 million/ 9.4 18-49 demo
Sat- 26.2 million/ 7.9 18-49
Sun- 26.3 million/ 7.0 18-49
Mon- 25.49 million/ 7.2 18-49
Tues- 20.41 million/ 5.4 18-49  <-------Against American Idol
Wed- 29.26 million/  8.9 <-----Against AI
Thurs- 25.21 million/ 7.1
Fri- 23.22 million/ 5.2

Monday, February 15, 2010

$$$ and Cents

From an old post of mine over at ChuckTV trying to explain the dollar figures that go into TV shows. If the post reads a little bit funny, it's because I did a quick copy and paste. Too lazy to edit it =P

***************************

It all depends if NBC is making money off Chuck. NBC paid for the show cheaper this year with essentially the same ratings it got last year. Given that everything else on NBC is down (except Biggest Loser), Chuck is one of their "bright" spots. Chuck is, as of now, their highest rated hour-long program. That won't last because SVU will be moved back to where it should be (10pm) and Parenthood will get an awesome lead-in from the BL.

In terms of cost, here's a rough chart of what shows are getting per 30 second ad spots:

http://adage.com/article?article_id=139923#mon

For NBC, Heroes is definitely not getting that much per 30 sec. ad. In fact, none of the NBC shows are getting those rates because of their crappy ratings except BL and The Office. Time for some rough estimates and math. For every show, there's roughly 36 spots, and say about 8 of those spots are given to local affiliates. Since Chuck is not on the chart, lets say Chuck gets around $85,000 per spot. NBC gets roughly $2.38 million per episode. Now, the question is: How much did NBC pay for the show per episode? Anything below the $2.38 million NBC obviously makes money. And we don't know how much Subway put into the show, so that probably will drive the license fee down a tiny bit more. Another question is if WB makes any money off the show (likely not), but lets keep it simple.

Another question to ask: Can NBC put anything into Chuck's time-slot that will do better? The answer is most likely no. Heroes was getting roughly what Chuck is getting now in the fall, but that show is way more expensive to produce.

It's important to remember that this is NBC. Jeff Gaspin has mentioned numerous times that he wants to "improve" ratings, and not necessarily beat other shows. He wants to see improvement. Slow and steady growth in ratings, eventually you'll be able to beat the big guys. Chuck has held steady compared to last year, and when all of NBC is down, Chuck certainly looks good for NBC.

Friday, February 12, 2010

Winter Olympics- Ratings (and Chuck)

I'm on the west coast so I'd have to watch the Opening Ceremony on tape delay (east coast bias =P). for some reason I couldn't find the ratings for the 2006 winter Olympics. But I guess that doesn't matter because 2002 will be a better barometer of how the ratings will turn out.

2002 Winter Games was held in Salt Lake City, Utah. Because it was in North America, the Games, (and NBC), enjoyed the highest rated Games to date, with over 45 million people tuning in. And throughout the 2 week affair, NBC averaged 31 million viewers a night.

2006 saw a huge drop in the ratings. It averaged only 20.2 million viewers. The biggest reason was because of location: It was located in Italy. All of the broadcasts on NBC were on tape delay, and results were readily available online, thus robbing the telecasts the drama and viewers they wanted. 

And the Games are back in North America, this time on the West Coast in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. And ratings are expected to be much higher because the majority of events will be aired live on the east coast.

So what will Games get in the ratings? NBC should see anywhere between 35-45 million viewers. I'll guess 37.5 million for the Opening Ceremony, and NBC will average 25-30 million over the two weeks.

Now why did I mention Chuck in the title? Chuck was scheduled to return the day after the Olympics. NBC was going to give it ample promotion over the two weeks. And it seemed like a great plan since NBC was no doubt going to garner high ratings for those two weeks. But of course, Chuck was brought back early because NBC was in the crapper. And as mentioned in my previous posts. Chuck is doing just fine.

But how would the show fare if NBC had waited until March 1st to air the premiere? I have no clue and it's kind of pointless to guess at this stage. But you'd have to wonder what Chuck would've gotten in the ratings with promos that will be seen by 20-30 million people a night.

The Nuances of the Nielsen Ratings System

Just did a quick look at the final ratings for Chuck, and this is where the quirkiness of the ratings come into play. A couple of points, and I hope I don't lose you in this:

*WARNING- LOTS OF NUMBERS AHEAD*

The previous low for Chuck this season was 3.04, which got 6.65 million viewers and a 2.5 in the demo. And it got a 3.8/6 household rating/share

This week, Chuck got 6.596 million viewers and a 2.2 in the demo. Household rating/share for this episode was a tiny bit higher- 3.9/6

So what does this mean?

Demos are the most important factor in terms of a show's renewal. But what do they really mean in terms of how many people are watching? Let's provide some hard numbers.

For example, Chuck's latest episode garnered a 2.2. So what does that mean? It means that 2.2% of adults 18-49 are watching Chuck that night. The lastest number I could find from Nielsen is that there are 132 million people in the 18-49 bracket. Just simple multiplication, and you have 2.9 million viewers in the 18-49 for last nights episode.

For households, there are 114.9 million TV households in the U.S. So a 3.9 household means that 3.9% of households are tuning in.

So having said that:

In terms of households, there were actually more households tuning in compared to 3.04, and yet we had less viewers and a much worse demo. Chuck had nearly 115,000 more HH tuning in. So why less viewers? That can be attributed to the fact that the households that were watching had less people in them, thus the lower viewership numbers. Oh btw, Chuck had the same HH number as last week.

Which brings me to my other point: Viewership drop doesn't correspond to demo drop.

Comparing the two lowest rated episodes to date (3.04 and 3.07) Chuck only lost 54,000 viewers. Now that doesn't look to bad of a drop right? But that doesn't really matter much in terms of renewal. In terms of 18-49 demos, Chuck lost a much larger 396,000 viewers  :'(  So how can Chuck lose so much demo and so little in total viewership? That means more <17 year olds and 50+ are watching Chuck then the 18-49 group. While that's great and all, we don't need those viewers  :P What we need is people in the 18-49.

What was the point of all this? No clue  :P If you dig deep into the numbers, the fan base is still mostly intact. It's just different people are tuning in. There's no deep "erosion" in Chuck, except for the demos.

As Seen on Chucktv.net: Chuck vs. The Ratings- Numbers, Demos, Trends, and Charts

What It All Means and Why Chuck Is Well Positioned for Season 4 

This article was originally posted on Chucktv.net. If you want to leave any comments for this article, please go to that site. Thank you =D

Opinions and views expressed in this article is solely that of the author.

Ever since the second season there has been a strong fascination about Chuck’s ratings. What do the ratings mean? Are the ratings good enough for another season? Is it time for fans to worry? Time to start up another “Save Chuck” campaign? Short answer: Chuck is doing okay in the ratings. Last nights drop to a 2.2 (still preliminary) is worrisome, but remember it’s still early in the season. Yes Chuck is on the bubble once again, but it’s still a relatively strong performer for NBC.

It’s important to remember that the demographics 18-49 are the most important number to focus on and that’s what I’ll be referring to. Why? That’s what advertisers use to set their ad rates for the upcoming season, thus networks follow suit. Viewership numbers are not entirely useless, but it doesn’t matter much to advertisers. If you want to read more about the ratings and what the numbers mean, head over to TVByTheNumbers.com.

Current Ratings

There has been some concern about the recent ratings drop. The charts below show the ratings, in demos and viewership, for season 3 to date.
chuckseason3_allviewerschuckseason3_demo
Now the charts don’t look too good, right? In fact, the charts make it look worse than it really is. What we should be focusing on is episodes 3.03 onward. Why? The first two episodes of Chuck aired on a Sunday, a night with totally different competition and viewership. And as with any premiere episodes, ratings will tend to be inflated, so to speak. It’s only natural for shows in their second outings to drop. This is not unique to Chuck, but quite common amongst the majority of TV shows.

Another important thing to remember is that since NBC scheduled the Sunday premiere event, Nielsen (who provides the ratings) does not add those numbers to the season average since those were “specials”. Only episodes not deemed “specials” (i.e. aired in its regular time-slot) will be counted in the averages. So the averages will not include the first 2 episodes.

Having said that, are the ratings from 3.03 onward ominous? Not necessarily. To date, Chuck is averaging 2.44 in the demos. That makes Chuck the 3rd highest scripted show on NBC, behind The Office and 30 Rock, and the highest rated hour-long scripted programming. It’s amazing that a show, once on the verge of cancellation, has become one of NBC’s few bright spots.

Note: It’s likely that Chuck will not be the highest rated hour-long program post-Olympics with Parenthood after the The Biggest Loser (NBC’s most-watched program), getting a significant lead-in to boost/inflate its numbers. Also, Law & Order: SVU will be moving back to 10pm, its rightful place and most likely will have better ratings. This should not affect Chuck in terms of renewal.

Comparing Season 2 & Season 3

Some may argue “but look at the trajectory of the ratings. It’s going down, not stabilizing”. This is where looking at past ratings will help put things into perspective.

It’s important to remember that Chuck’s current crop of competition- The Bachelor/Dancing with the Stars, CBS comedies, and House - was only the same post-Super Bowl of last year. Chuck had the courtesy of going up against Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles in fall 2008, a far weaker show compared to House. So, for an apples-to-apples comparison, lets take a look at how Chuck did during the last half of season 2 (2.13-2.22).
chuckseason2_allviewerschuckseason2_demo
From episode 2.13 up to the season 2 finale, Chuck averaged a 2.26 in the demo. Going up against The Bachelor (three episodes), Chuck averaged 2.33. When Dancing with the Stars debuted, Chuck averaged 2.23. The drop you see from 2.15 to 2.16 was due to the debut of DWTS. Every show that night saw drops in their ratings. So that begs the question: Will Chuck face a similar drop in ratings? Most likely, but it’s nothing to be alarmed at. What we can look forward to is that DWTS should not be debuting as strongly as last season. If their fall performance was any indication, DWTS should be weaker this season. Plus, as indicated in the chart, Chuck regained its entire demo that it lost initially to DWTS.

So comparing the ratings, Chuck is currently averaging 2.44 compared to 2.26 during the last half of last season. In terms of viewership, the show gained 770,000 more viewers. Amazingly, Chuck is on par with the first half of the second season when it was up against weaker competition (2.53 vs. 2.5) (6.68 vs. 6.88 million viewers) More importantly, there’s a trend in the ratings that can be seen in all three season of Chuck.

Chuck Ratings To Date

 

chuckallseasons_allviewers
Note: In season 1, episodes 1.12 and 1.13 aired on a Thursday as a special “Chuck Sandwich” night. Chuck was off the air for 7 weeks and then brought back to finish its episodes during the writers strike.
It’s fascinating that in all three seasons of Chuck, the show has hit a bottom around episode 6. From there, it has slowly increased. Even in the second half of last season, Chuck ended on an uptrend after hitting bottom, yes, at the 6th episode of the second half of the season. Unfortunately, we don’t know if season 3 has seen a bottom yet, and we won’t know for at least a month.

Will season 3 continue the trend of Chuck increasing its ratings as the season progresses? According to past seasons, it should, barring a change in Chuck’s competition.

Chuck has endured a lot of headwinds. It survived the writers strike. It had to deal with FOX moving House opposite of Chuck. It had to deal with President Obama’s news conference, which effectively killed any momentum the show had from the 3D episode. For its premiere this season, Chuck had to deal with the 150th episode of The Simpsons, which FOX moved up to go up against Chuck. FOX also moved up House to compete against the second night of Chuck’s premiere event, then scheduled the premiere of 24 for the following week. Chuck had to go up against the 100th episode of How I Met Your Mother. And yet, the show just gave those shows the big middle finger. But it does make you wonder what Chuck’s ratings would’ve been had FOX not moved up their two big shows.

The Big Picture

Chuck is one of the few shows on ANY network, to hold its audience from last season. The long break and the new element of the show (Intersect 2.0) did not hurt the show as many had feared. Holding your audience from last season, even if it’s a small but very passionate base like Chuck’s, is a very good thing in the TV industry when year after year there’s less people watching broadcast television.
There are many things working in favor of Chuck moving forward:
  1. Cancellation of The Jay Leno Show- The only reason Chuck was on the bubble last season was because of Jay Leno. When NBC effectively cut 5 hours of prime-time, it put a bunch of shows on the bubble that would otherwise be safe. Because NBC was in such dire straits last year, shows with 2.3+ demos would’ve been safe. Now with 5 more hours free, NBC has a bunch of holes in its schedule. NBC will try to plug those holes with new shows, and that’s evident with its big order of pilots. But don’t take that as a sign Chuck may soon be, um, “chucked”. On average, networks pick up 20-25% of their pilots. Not a very high percentage. For a network like NBC, having known shows with adequate ratings is much safer and the network could use those shows to grow new shows.
  2. Impending cancellation of Trauma and/or Mercy – Neither show can even crack a 2.0 in demos. Both shows are likely gone, thus opening up more hours, making Chuck’s 2.44 look even better.
  3. It’s on NBC- NBC is doing even worse this season. Leno failed epically. None of NBC’s new shows caught on. Former ratings giant LO:SVU got killed at the 9pm hour. Chuck is the only show to hold, even grow its audience.
  4. Subway and Honda- Now I don’t really know what the financials are, but when you have a corporation that helped save the show (Subway) and another actively advertising on the show (Honda), it helps with negotiations come renewal time when you have corporations wanting to advertise on your show.
The season is still young and the ratings will fluctuate week after week. The ratings post-Olympics will be very important. If Chuck can hold to a 2.4-2.5 average in the demos, things look very good for a season 4. Chuck will have fairly smooth sailing until DWTS debuts on March 29th, bolstered by the promos NBC will air during the Olympics when it has a larger audience than its seen in years. Anything below a 2.4 average, it’s time to worry, but it’s definitely not the end of Chuck.

Another important thing to remember: Don’t focus on how Chuck does against the competition. It’ll probably stay in 4th place unless it goes up against repeats. Rather, focus on how Chuck does relative to other shows on NBC. That’s all that really matters at this point.

There will still be some hand-wringing about the ratings, and that’s fine. But it’s also important to remember that Chuck, at this point, is doing okay. Yes I’m a little bit worried, but it’s still early in the season. It’s more important how we do in March and April, especially April since that’s when NBC will make its decision on season 4. Having said that, I’m still cautiously optimistic for season 4.

Credit: All charts courtesy of snickrz.
Source for ratings info: pifeedback.com and TVByTheNumbers. If you want to follow ratings for Chuck or any other show, those two websites do a fabulous job reporting the numbers.

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Welcome!

Just wanted to introduce myself. Fellow Chucksters will know me as buymoriaking on the amazing fansite Chucktv.net as well on the NBC boards. Or if you want to get a little personal, you can call me Vinny =D.

Now why am I starting this blog? Main reason is because I'm very much interested in how the Nielsen ratings system works and all its nuances and intricacies. And I have the TV show Chuck to thank. Before watching Chuck, I had no idea what ratings mean, what constitutes as a "good ratings" and "bad ratings". Like many casual fans out there, you would think total viewership numbers is what determines renewal. Wrong. It's all about demos, demos, demos. If you want to read up about ratings, head over to TVByTheNumbers.

Other than Chuck, I'm a fan of other TV shows such as Bones, The Big Bang Theory, LOST, Smallville, Dollhouse, and reality fare such as Mythbusters, Dirty Jobs, Deadliest Catch, and Man vs. Wild.

Now a little bit about myself. I'm a recent college graduate from the University of California Irvine, class of 2009. And sadly for me and many other recent college graduates, I'm unemployed at the moment =(. Hobbies of mine include:
  • Going to the gym. There are certain weeks where I'll go everyday, and them some days where I'm just lazy as hell. but on average, I'll try to go 4 times a week.
  • Love playing basketball. Though not very tall, I'm a deadly shooter ;-D
Now what will this blog be about? It will be commentary on ratings of my favorite shows listed above, but in general will mention other shows as well. There will be episode commentary whenever I have the time (i.e. when I'm not lazy) and other news about the TV industry.

So I hope you enjoy the posts and see them as informative and entertaining.