CBS Fall Schedule: An Analysis

CBS is in an enviable position in that it has too many hit shows and not enough room for new shows. It’s an embarrassment of riches, and a very good problem to have.

CBS’ schedule is incredibly stable; save for some minor tweaks that I believe only strengthens their schedule.

Monday:

8 pm: How I Met Your Mother/ Partners

9 pm: 2 Broke Girls/ Mike & Molly

10 pm: Hawaii Five-O

CBS struck gold with 2 Broke Girls, easily the highest rated freshmen comedy (or any new show for that matter) on TV. Not only that, HIMYM also saw new life, with it’s ratings improving from last year. Because of the success of 2BG, it will be moving to the 9pm anchor spot to replace the aging veteran 2 And A Half Men.

The network will air a new comedy out of HIMYM, which is very smart since they had a lot of success with 2BG in this slot. Mike & Molly stays in the 9:30 slot. Overall this looks like a strong night, and CBS hopes that 2BG can be the solid anchor Men was.

Tuesday:

8 pm: NCIS

9 pm: NCIS: LA

10 pm: Vegas

For a show entering its 10^th season this fall, NCIS shows no signs of aging. Incredibly, the show grew its viewership the past couple of years, unheard of for a show this old. Spinoff NCIS:LA has been successful airing at 9pm, so there was no need to change what was working.

What was not working, however, was the 10 pm slot. Unforgettable squandered much of its lead-in, to the point where all 3 networks were competitive on the night, on a night that CBS should win. So airing a new show here, Vegas, which according to critics is a CSI-type show before all the tech, is a smart thing to do.

Wednesday

8 pm: Survivor

9 pm: Criminal Minds

10 pm: CSI

Probably one of the most underrated moves of last year was moving the then-struggling CSI to the Wednesday 10pm slot, where the show got a new breadth of fresh air in the ratings. Even though this slot had less competition, the show did not lose viewers and easily won the time slot.

The rest of the night is populated by seasoned vets Survivor and Criminal Minds, both shows still doing very well in the ratings.

Thursday:

8 pm: Big Bang Theory/ Two And A Half Men

9 pm: Person of Interest

10 pm: Elementary

CBS successfully staked its claim as king of comedy on this night, at least at 8 pm. CBS hasn’t had too much success airing a compatible comedy out of BBT, so CBS has decided to shore up 8:30 with the veteran 2 And A Half Men. Whether CBS is trying to save this show from declining ratings or putting it here to die, no matter the reason the comedy block will be stronger in the ratings.

Person of Interest slowly grew into a nice hit for the network, growing its ratings throughout the fall, but seeing declines in the spring (as did all other shows). So CBS keeping the show here in this slot rather moving it is a smart move, with the network giving it another chance to grow.

CBS felt that this slot was the best suited for a new drama, shipping The Mentalist off to Sundays. Taking its place is the new modern-day Sherlock Holmes drama Elementary. The show has been getting some buzz mainly from the BBC, who is airing their own Sherlock Holmes series, with the British net threatening to sue CBS. So far, those threats have been hot air, but things can change quickly.

Friday:

8 pm: CSI: NY

9 pm: Made In Jersey

10 pm: Blue Bloods

The network is sticking to its guns and airing all scripted dramas once again, at least in the fall. CBS failed in launching a new drama at 8 pm last year, so they’re trying a different strategy, slotting the veteran CSI:NY at the 8pm slot leading into a new series Made In Jersey. It’s always hard to predict how a new show will do, and on a Friday it’s hard to predict what constitutes success. Blue Bloods will stay on at 10 pm, where it’s been capitalizing on older viewers.  

Sunday:

8 pm: The Amazing Race

9 pm: The Good Wife

10 pm: The Mentalist

I’m a little bit surprised that CBS opted to keep The Good Wife here when it struggled in the ratings last year. Many thought that the show would be shipped to Fridays, but CBS still believes in the show, giving it probably one last chance for it to succeed.

The Mentalist moves to its new home on Sundays 10pm. CBS has moved this show every year since it debuted, and surprisingly the show has kept a loyal fan base. This will shore up the 10 pm slot and should give CBS a win here.  

ABC Fall 2012 Schedule: An Analysis

Comedies seem to be the “in” thing right now. Like NBC, ABC has opened up new comedy nights on Tuesday and Friday. The reason, just like NBC, is that their  new, hour long dramas so far have failed to gain any traction (Once Upon A Time the lone exception)

Analysis below.

Monday

8 pm-10 pm: Dancing With The Stars

10 pm: Castle

The night is working for ABC, but DWTS has been bleeding viewers for the past couple years now. Even with its ratings in decline, it’s still the highest rated show for the network. Because of that, ABC would be better off slotting a new drama here. Castle has been in this slot ever since it debuted, and it has done a phenomenal job. But going into season 5 and its ratings in a holding pattern, the show would be better off plugging one of ABC’s more troubled time slots, Thursday 8pm.

ABC is in need of a new drama hit, and I see this as a missed opportunity to capitalize on the DWTS audience.

Tuesday:

8 pm: Dancing With The Stars (results)

9 pm: Happy Ending/ Don’t Trust the B**** In Apt. 23

10 pm: Private Practice

ABC is following NBC and using their marquee reality show to launch a new comedy block. Come fall, the Tuesday 9pm hour will be populated by comedies from ABC, Fox, and NBC.

Happy Endings and Apt. 23 haven’t exactly set the ratings system on fire. Both comedies have their ratings inflated because of Modern Family. Without the Modern Family lead-in support, both shows were getting low 2’s in the demos. And with DWTS being an older audience, lead-in support won’t be as strong. Maybe airing at a different night could help, but with competition for Fox’s New Girl and NBC, success may be limited.

Private Practice was doing OK when moved here in the spring. While not a solid hit, it was doing better than the former occupant Body Of Proof, which surprisingly was renewed even with mediocre ratings.

Wednesday:

8 pm: The Middle/ Suburgatory

9 pm: Modern Family/ The Neighbors

10 pm: Nashville

ABC is smart to keep this night a family-oriented night, so to speak. The three returning comedies do very well for ABC, and ABC is smart to air a new comedy, The Neighbors, here after having mix results with Happy Endings and Apt. 23.

ABC had some traction at 10 pm with the well-received Revenge. ABC opted to try a new show here Nashville. It’s being billed as a family soap, keeping true to the overall theme of the night. Good move.

Thursday:

8 pm: Last Resort

9 pm: Grey’s Anatomy

10 pm: Scandal

Thursdays has been anchored by Grey’s Anatomy for the past 7 seasons, but like many aging shows, has declined in the ratings in recent years. However, ABC has had problems scheduling the 8 pm hour the past couple of years, with FlashForward, Charlie’s Angels, and Missing all canceled after a season. I like ABC not giving up on dramas in this slot, but the trend has not been friendly. ABC will once again try an action-oriented drama in this slot, Last Resort, from Shawn Ryan. With Fox airing reality, NBC and CBS airing comedies, ABC could get some traction here with their counter programming.

Friday:

8 pm: Last Man Standing/ Malibu Country (both debuting in November)

9 pm: Shark Tank

10 pm: Primetime: What Would You Do?

With no network airing comedies on Friday last year, there will be 2 networks trying to stake a claim on comedy Friday this fall. ABC is returning to its TGIF comedies of years back. ABC will air a pair of multi-cams at 8 pm, the returning Tim Allen laugher Last Man Standing, paired with the new comedy from Reba McIntyre Malibu Country.  Reba is extremely popular in the heartland, and if Tim Allen can migrate is fans over to Fridays, ABC has a winner here.

Shark Tank has flown under the radar and has quietly done a solid job for ABC on Fridays, consistently one of the higher rated shows on Friday. 20/20 will say on at 10pm.

Sunday:

8 pm: Once Upon A Time

9 pm: Revenge

10 pm: 666 Park Avenue

ABC struck gold with Once Upon A Time, giving ABC a much needed to hit that could replace their aging veterans Grey’s Anatomy and the recently concluded Desperate Housewives. The network hopes Revenge can be their next Wisteria Lane at 9 pm, giving the show a better chance to find a wider audience at an earlier time slot. ABC will try to launch a new drama out of Revenge, the supernatural soap 666 Park Avenue. This is a smart choice since the show has elements from both Once and Revenge. 

Fox 2012 Fall Schedule: An Analysis

Safe is the name of the game for Fox’s fall schedule. The X Factor will be the anchor for the network, with a focus on comedy. Fox is also in need of a drama hit, with House ending and only one freshmen drama surviving to next season, Touch.

Here is Fox’s fall schedule:

Monday:

8 pm: Bones

9 pm: The Mob Doctor

Once home to their mighty dramas such as House and 24, Mondays became a sore spot for the network. The once venerable House was only averaging low to mid 2’s in the demo. Freshmen dramas failed to gain traction, Terra Nova an expensive flop and Alcatraz failing to find an audience on a crowded night.

Fox did shore things up a tiny bit by moving Bones to the 8 pm slot in the spring, and will continue to anchor the night in the fall.  Fox will try again with a new drama The Mob Doctor. Given the stiff competition from NBC, ABC, and CBS, it’s hard to see this drama becoming a hit.

Tuesday:

8 pm: Raising Hope/ Ben & Kate

9 pm: New Girl/ The Mindy Project

The rumors proved true as Fox is expanding their comedy block to two nights. New Girl will anchor the night and Fox slotting its highly-touted The Mindy Project behind it. However, I have a big issue with Raising Hope leading off the night. When Fox did a trial run at 8 pm in the spring, the ratings weren’t great, getting mid to high 1’s. And using it to lead into a new comedy, Ben & Kate will be handicapped by a weak lead-in.

Wednesday: 

8-10 pm: The X Factor

To say the ratings for The X Factor were a disappointment would be an understatement. Yes ratings were great, getting high 3’s to low 4’s, but many thought it would garner Idol-type ratings. The show suffered from brutal high expectations, but Fox and Simon Cowell did nothing to tamp down those expectations.

The show will have new judges in the fall with Britney Spears and Demi Lovato joining the team. Since when were these two a good judgement of talent? 

Thursday: 

8 pm: The X Factor (results)

9 pm: Glee

Fox has had a lot of trouble trying to capitalize on the post Idol/X Factor slot., with The Finder  and Touch failing to hold onto the reality audience. Slotting Glee here serves two purposes: to shore up the 9pm hour and to give Glee a boost. Glee has been shedding viewers mainly because of quality and poor writing. Will moving it here give it a new lease on life? We’ll know in the fall.

Friday: 

8 pm: Touch

9 pm: Fringe

I applaud Fox for trying to air scripted content on Fridays, but putting a sophomore show like Touch, which hasn’t stabilized in the ratings yet, on a Friday is very risky. I only have to point to The Finder, which was getting similar ratings to what Touch was getting after Idol, only to shed a majority of its viewers on a move to Friday. Bones would have been a logical choice at 8pm given that it's a veteran show with a loyal fan base, but Fox felt it would be better served on Monday helping launch a new show. 

While Fox will have the whole summer to advertise the move to Fridays, I don’t see this working out, even if it’s Kiefer Sutherland.

Fringe? It’s the last season and both Fox and Warner Bros. were generous enough to give the fans a proper ending.

Sunday: 

8pm: The Simpsons/ Bob’s Burgers

9 pm: Family Guy/ American Dad

No big changes here. Their animation block has shown some minor audience erosion this year, and Fox has not had a breakout hit to compliment/replace the aging Simpsons and Family Guy. Fox decided to play it safe and not launch any new animation shows in the fall. 

NBC Fall 2012 Schedule: An Analysis

Oh what a mess NBC has been in for the past couple of years. The network hasn’t really recovered since the Jay Leno fiasco. But a ray of sunshine is beginning to peak through those dark clouds with new management, a respectable network honcho in Bob Greenblatt, and a new hit show (The Voice) in which to remind the populace that NBC is still a network.

NBC has the added benefit of having the Olympics as a promotional platform for their fall lineup. In addition to Sunday Night Football, NBC needs to capitalize on this borrowed audience, something they have failed to do in recent years.

Without further ado, my analysis for NBC’s falls schedule:

Monday:

8 pm: The Voice

10 pm: Revolution

The Voice is NBC’s one true, much needed needed hit. So bringing it back for the fall is a no-brainer. What I have a problem with is NBC planning to make this a two cycle show a la Dancing with the Stars and Survivor. They run the risk of overexposure (look what happen to Who Wants to be a Millionaire, Deal Or No Deal) and thus killing the one hit show they have.

So gripes aside…

The Voice will be a great promotional platform to advertise their shows. ‘Voice’ gets huge ratings for their blind auditions, but viewership steadily falls throughout the battle rounds and live performances. There are tweaks coming to the show, such as incorporating those spinning chairs into the battle rounds. It sounds like a smart move to do in theory, let’s see if it works.

The most coveted spot on NBC’s lineup is the post-Voice slot. Smash debuted here to decent ratings but steadily lost viewers. NBC is smart to try a new drama here, in this case their best testing pilot, Revolution. From Eric Kripke (Supernatural) and JJ Abrams, with the pilot directed by Jon Favreau (Iron Man), the show has the pedigree to succeed and be a much needed hit for the network. But I do have my doubts. NBC had a similar genre-type show that garnered a lot of buzz, debuted to very strong numbers, and was eventually canceled after a season. How many of you remember The Event?

Tuesday:

8 pm: The Voice (results)

9 pm: Go On/ The New Normal

10pm: Parenthood

NBC is doing the right thing retooling The Biggest Loser for mid-season. This was the one show that NBC had counted on for decent ratings. But overexposure and bloated air times (2 hours!) it started to bleed viewers.

The Voice results show doesn’t garner the same monster ratings as the performance shows, but it is still the top rated show for the night on any network. NBC is smart to slot this at 8 pm to lead off the night and serve as a lead-in for their two new comedies: Go On starring Matthew Perry and The New Normal, from Ryan Murphy. These are probably the two comedies NBC thinks will have the best chance success.

Parenthood at 10 pm is a safe choice and works for the network. Even though the show hasn’t been a ratings winner it should be, CBS and ABC haven’t exactly owned the night. This is one of the few slots where an NBC drama is competitive.

Wednesday:

8 pm: Animal Practice/ Guys With Kids

9 pm:  Law & Order SVU

10 pm: Chicago Fire

NBC had a boatload of problems on Wednesdays throughout the year. Up All Night, Whitney, and Betty White have done respectable ratings at 8pm, but the 8:30 slot proved to be a huge black hole, which I think hurt the 8 pm slot as well. 9 pm was even worse, with Harry’s Law and Rock Center not even hitting a 1.0 demo on most nights. That in turn brought down a once reliable Law & Order: SVU to series-low ratings.

Starting with new comedy shows at 8 pm is a risky but smart thing to do. None of the returning comedies would do much better here, so having something fresh here is a good start.

NBC moving Law & Order: SVU to 9pm is an idiotic move. They tried this TWICE and both times it only hurt the show. Maybe NBC thinks ratings can’t get any lower, but if the past is any indication, this could be a disaster.

But logic dictates that NBC wants to use SVU to help launch Chicago Fire. NBC is in need to find a procedural to replace the aging SVU, and NBC hopes Chicago Fire is it.

Thursday:

8 pm: 30 Rock/Up All Night

9 pm: The Office/ Parks & Rec.

10 pm: Rock Center With Brian Williams

The majority of NBC’s returning comedies will populate Thursdays 8-10 pm. Whether you think NBC is playing it safe, giving up on the night or whatever, the comedies are seasoned vets (minus Up All Night) and they proved reliable, OK ratings (by NBC standards).

Now 10 pm. I really really REALLY hate this scheduling choice. NBC is giving up on the hour without trying. Yes NBC hasn’t had a successful drama launch since ER ended in 2009, I just don’t get why a show that was pulled during May sweeps because it was getting shitty ratings, has a prime time slot in the fall schedule. NBC could easily slot in one of a handful of new reality shows NBC has in the wings. Only logical explanation would be the upcoming 2012 Election.

Friday:

8 pm: Whitney/Community

9 pm: Grimm

10 pm: Dateline

I have always liked the idea of networks trying to air comedies, and NBC is doing just that. However, I don’t see the connection between Whitney and Community. The shows could not be more different. But hey, we’ll see if this works. It should improve upon the dismal ratings Who Do You Think You Are? was getting.  

The comedies should provide better compatibility for Grimm, which was one of NBC’s few bright spots, to the surprise of everyone. Dateline works where it is, so no need moving it.

Sunday (post football January 2013):

7 pm: Dateline

8 pm: Fashion Star

9 pm: Celebrity Apprentice:

10 pm: Do No Harm

Fashion Star is cheap and makes NBC money. Cutting Celebrity Apprentice down to 1 hour is smart thing to do. The show was way too bloated at 2 hours, and the show was beginning to show its age this year. Cutting it down to an hour, plus a better cast (real celebrities please) could help. NBC hasn’t aired a drama on Sundays 10 pm in a long time, so NBC putting a new drama here, Do No Harm, was a minor surprise. With CBS and ABC having problems in this slot, NBC feels like it can create a foothold here with a new drama.