Chuck Increases to a 2.1; Should NBC Move Chuck to Different Night?

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/03/30/tv-ratings-dancing-with-the-stars-down-but-dominate-castle-chuck-rise/46581?utm_campaign=WP-TWITTER&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitter

First off, sorry for not posting much this past week. Had tons of errands to run, job interviews. Yes, life was busy =P

But back to last night's episode. Against DWTS and CBS/FOX repeats, Chuck increased to a 2.1 and 5.6 million viewers. That's a nice increase from the lows the past two weeks. While the increases were nice to see, a 2.1 still puts us in the danger zone of being canceled. NBC will probably cancel us with a 2.1. That said, an increase is an increase. The overwhelmingly positive buzz from this episode will not be reflected in last ngiht's ratings, but it could bode well for next week's "faux" finale. I expect a modest increase to a 2.2-2.3 in the demos. Those numbers will put Chuck in a good position to increase its ratings and hopefully be enough to get it another season.

Ever since last year, there's always been discussions about whether Chuck would do better on a different night. The past two years Chuck has held up admirably when other NBC shows failed miserably in the Monday time-slot. But would changing time-slots be beneficial for Chuck?

The answer is of course, though it's not that simple. Moving a show in -mid-season is always a risky procedure. But in Chuck's case, I believe it's a risky move that NBC should take. There are a number of places where NBC could move Chuck:

1. Wednesday 8pm- This is the most popular among Chuck fans. The current occupant, Mercy, had a new low last week of 1.3. FOX's Human target got a 2.0. However, these shows were up against Survivor because NCAA basketball had occupied the Thursday time-slot. But on a regular Wednesday, The highest rated show would garner a 2.3-2.5. Chuck could easily be in second, or even first for the night. Chuck could also increase the average for NBC for that night. However, Wednesday 8pm is notorious for its low household viewership. It's the lowest outside of Friday. But I believe Chuck will be fine because fans will migrate with the show
2. Sunday 8pm- Another potential slot for Chuck. Minute to Win It is not exactly doing gangbusters in the ratings. Competition is less compared to Friday. The only thing we have to worry about is any overrun by sporting events, but that's rare in the spring. Another problem is that there are big events scheduled for Sundays: Super Bowl, Grammys, Oscars. That would hurt continuity and flow of the show. Chuck has shown, albeit later on in the night, that it cold do well on Sundays.
3. Fridays- Now some people might scream this is a bad move, and it could very well be. The prevailing opinion is that any show "exiled" to Fridays means that the show will be soon canceled. However, I'm a glass half full type of person and I say that doesn't have to be the case. As ABC showed last week, they premiered a new show, "Jamie Oliver's Food Revolution", and the show got a 2.6 in the demo. A 2.6!!! ON  A FRIDAY!! This shows that there is an audience for Fridays. Heck, even NBC's WDYTYA is doing reasonably well. Same argument for Chuck goes here. If Chuck can keep its audience from Monday to a Friday, that will be good for the show. This is a long shot, but NBC could bring back Chuck much cheaper and stick it on Fridays. If it holds anything above a 2.0, Chuck could easily stay on Fridays for a couple more seasons. 

I'm with the crowd that NBC should use the upcoming two week break to promote Chuck on a new night. But I doubt that will happen because NBC is showing repeats of Chuck Monday nights, which seems to indicate NBC will keep Chuck on Mondays the rest of the year. 

Speculation: The Fate of Chuck and NBC

Over the weekend, TVBTN posted the dates in which the broadcast networks will announce their schedule for the 2010-2011 TV season. It is getting to that time of year where pilots will begin filming, and in a few weeks networks will start watching those pilots. Come May, we'll have a good idea as to what the networks are favoring and how the pilot development is doing.

First off though, an update on the ratings from last Friday and why WDYTYA will be renewed.

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/03/20/tv-ratings-cbs-wins-with-march-madness-who-do-you-think-you-are-kitchen-nightmares-perform-solidly/45563

No surprise that CBS won the night with college basketball. FOX did well with Kitchen Nightmares  with a 1.9 in the demo. What's somewhat surprising is how NBC's Who Do You Think You Are? is doing. It got a 1.7 in the demos and over 7 million viewers. It's been fairly steady ever since its premiere 3 weeks ago, staying in the 1.7-1.8 range. While WDYTYA is a reality show (and I know a lot of people hate reality TV), I must say that this show is entertaining and very interesting. WDYTYA is a remake of a British version (very popular in Britain). The British version started off slowly but grew into a hit. WDYTYA looks to be doing the same.

Now, because I'm a fan of Chuck, the most logical question what does this mean for Chuck? At this moment, it's really hard to say. The 1.9 that Chuck got the past 2 weeks is horrible and would definitely get the show canceled. The question is whether this was a blip on the radar screen or something more worrying.

It's very hard to determine what NBC will do with its lineup. The Marriage Ref has been doing fairly well on Thursday, getting a 2.8 in the demo. It looks like the show will stay around for next season. Same goes for WDYTYA. But now we have to look at NBC's pilot orders:


http://www.thefutoncritic.com/devwatch.aspx?series=&network=nbc&daycode=2&statuscode=1&genre=drama&studio=

NBC has ordered 10 drama and 11 comedy pilots. remember not all will be picked up and the pick-up rate of pilots are low. However, this is NBC and they've been on record saying they'll be looking to pick up 5 or 6 drama pilots and 4 or 5 comedy pilots. Of course, this depends on how their pilots develop.

NBC (and all other broadcast networks) have 19 hours to fill. For NBC during the fall, 4 of those hours are taken away because of Sunday night Football. That leaves NBC with 15 hours to fill.

Sure pickups:
Law & Order: SVU
Law & Order <---- Based on comments from Angela Bromstad
The Biggest Loser (2 hours)
The Office/30Rock/Community/ Parks & Rec. (2 hours)
Dateline 

Looking Good for Renewal:
The Marriage Ref
Who Do You Think You Are?
Celebrity Apprentice (The original "Apprentice" is being rebooted)

One The Bubble:
Chuck
Parenthood
Heroes (only because Chuck has dipped to Heroes levels)
Minute to Win It

Canceled:
Trauma
Mercy

With 9 hours seemingly filled in the fall, that leaves NBC with 6 hours to fill. Here's what a prospective lineup could look like. remember, this is only speculation on my part.

Monday
8- New
9- New
10- New

Tuesday
8- Biggest Loser
9- Biggest Loser
10- New

Wed
8- Marriage Ref and/or The Apprentice (reboot)
9- New
10- LO: SVU

Thurs.
8- Comedy/ Comedy (Community/Parks & Rec mid season)
9- The Office/ 30 Rock
10- New

Fri
8- WDYTYA? or New Reality
9- Law & Order
10- Dateline

Sun (after football)
7- Dateline
8- Reality/ New Show
9- Celeb. Apprentice
10- Celeb. Apprentice

I believe that NBC will want to debut as many new shows as possible. Angela Bromstad was on record saying that 10pm will all be scripted. That could change, of course, but I'll take her word.  The above schedule has NBC debuting 6 hours of new shows. I believe 5 hours will be dramas and NBC will try to launch another comedy block. 6 hours may seem like a lot, but ABC this fall debuted 8 hours of new programming.

Now some may ask: "But what happens when a show fails?" I believe that's where the "bubble" shows come into play. This year, NBC did not make contingency plans in case Leno failed. And it has showed in the schedule. NBC had to order more episodes of lowly rated shows (Trauma and Mercy) and they ran out of shows to fill in gaps (see LO:SVU repeat at 9pm Wednesdays). NBC won't make that same mistake next year.

NBC will need to have shows for mid-season. Does that include Chuck and/or Parenthood? It's really hard to determine at this moment. Chuck got hit hard the past two weeks and Parenthood has not shown its ratings have hit a bottom yet. It may seem logical for NBC to renew these two shows, but since the ratings are low, it's hard to determine what NBC will do. And even Heroes looks good to NBC right now. I hate to say this, but if Chuck and heroes are getting the same ratings, Heroes will win out because the show generates more money from international distribution and DVD sales, in which all the $$$ goes to NBC Universal.

For Chuck, it will come down to two things:

1. What the ratings are going to be from here on out
2. How much lower is Warner Bros. willing to go in terms of license fees.

In the coming weeks, we'll have a much clearer picture as to how the bubble shows will do and what direction NBC will head for next season.

DWTS Crushes Competition; Chuck Steady; CBS Drops

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/03/23/tv-ratings-dancing-with-the-stars-chuckstable-at-low-levels/45782

Against the premiere of DWTS (23.89 million, 6.3 demo), Chuck held steady, albeit at the low end of ratings, averaging 5.43 million viewers and a 1.9 in the demos.

CBS dropped noticeably, with the entire CBS comedy lineup falling over 2 million viewers and 0.5 in the demos. You can probably chalk that up to the debut of DWTS.

I'm not going to provide much commentary as I have a post coming much that pretty much sums up what NBC could do with Chuck and what NBC's schedule could look like for next season.

DST: Are People Finally Adjusting?

The ratings for Wednesday and Thursday has showed little change compared to last week. Looking at how DST wrecked havoic on Monday and Tuesday, are people finally adjusting to DST? Hard to say. First, here are the ratings for:

Wednesday
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/03/18/tv-ratings-idol-paces-fox-human-target-on-the-bubble-ugly-betty-sinks-to-lows/45371

Thursday
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/03/19/tv-ratings-march-madness-upsets-thursday-flashforward-return-fizzles/45367

Wednesday saw no noticeable changes compared to last week. CBS and ABC were mostly in repeats so it's hard to gauge the effect of DST. Same goes for Thursday. CBS was not airing its original programming because of March Madness, and FOX was in repeats as well.

NBC saw no noticeable changes at 8pm.

The return of FlashForward on ABC was uneventful. Averaging a 1.9 in the demo will certainly get the show canceled. That's too bad, because the show had an intriguing premise. Execution was a problem. It seems like they're hitting their strides the last couple of episodes, but that may be too late.

DST Continues Its Beatdown on Network TV

Daylight savings time (DST) has once again hit network TV hard. Again, here are the numbers provided by TVByTheNumbers:

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/03/17/tv-ratings-fox-but-lost-ncis-parenthood-and-many-other-fall/45237

All shows were down last night compared to the previous week. With the exception of American Idol (down just 2%), everything else was down 10% or more. NCIS, NCIS:LA, The Biggest Loser and Parenthood each hit season lows.

In regards to Biggest Loser, I'm still puzzled as to why this show has taken such a beating post-Olympics. The ratings BL is getting at 9pm is what it should be getting at the 8pm hour, with higher ratings at 9pm. Which leads me to Parenthood. The show is still eroding, getting 5.95 million viewers and a 2.3 in the demo, both series lows. However, I'm willing to bet that NBC expected much higher ratings, but that's with BL doing better. The subsequent drop in BL  has hit Parenthood accordingly.

Back to DST and its effect on network TV and, of course, Chuck. Looking at data from Monday and last night's shows, each show is getting hit with a 0.3, 0.4 demo drop and a good chunk of the total viewership. The point is that less people are watching TV because of DST. So the drop in ratings for Chuck Monday night has more to do with DST than “quality” of the show. It’s not Chuck that’s dropping, but every other show on network TV.

Will DST strike again for the Wednesday shows? I say likely.

(UPDATE) DST Destroys Broadcast TV; Chuck, House Down 17%

Well, I didn't see this coming. First, the ratings courtesy of TVByTheNumbers

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/03/16/tv-ratings-chuck-vs-daylight-savings-time-drops-big/45105

Chuck-5.78 million, 1.9 18-49 demos. Half hour numbers increased from a 1.8 to 2.0. The good thing is that we at least increased to a 2.0 in the demos. Also, Chuck was #2 among all broadcast channels in the demo men 18-34 for the time period. So there's at least a little bit of good news. Here's the link to the info:

http://www.rbr.com/tv-cable/tv-cable_ratings/22396.html
Both Chuck and House dropped 17% compared to last week. Some have attributed the drop to daylight savings time (DST). And according to TVBTN, there were 10% less people watching TV compared to last week (broadcast and cable). So everything on TV, broadcast or cable, was down, at least for the 8pm hour which would have taken the brunt of the hit. To those who love to bash TPTB for this ratings drop, I guess you can blame them too for the ratings drop among ALL channels. Boy did TPTB piss off other show's viewers too ;-)

But no matter which way you cut it, a 1.9 will not get the show renewed. We'll know more in the coming weeks whether this is just a blip on the radar or a trend.

In terms of demos, this is a series low for Chuck. The previous series low was a 2.1 (using final numbers) which was reached a couple of times during the last half of the season. In terms of viewership, this is not the lowest the series has seen. That would be for "Broken Heart", which got 5.6 million viewers. 

In regards to DST affecting TV, we'll know more the next couple of days. If Tuesday-Thursday see similar drops, the we'll know that DST does indeed have a significant impact on TV ratings, at least for the 8pm hour. My prediction? We'll see similar drops, at least for the 8pm hour. It's not going to look pretty for the 8pm hour this week.

Ouch for Parenthood

First I just want to mention that I'm a fan of 'Parenthood'. It's not as good as Chuck, but Parenthood is a good hour of television.

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/03/10/tv-ratings-fox-tops-night-parenthood-slips-lost-gains-melrose-place-invisible/44485
With that said, the ratings for Parenthood fell in its second outing, averaging 6.07 million viewers and a 2.6 in the demo. What's more troubling is the drop during the second half hour. Droping to 5.7 million and a 2.5 demo is not what NBC had in mind for this show. It's pretty safe to say that NBC at least expected a 3.0 given its lead-in. While a 2.6 is still OK, NBC is not thrilled with those numbers.

Speaking of the lead-in, what the heck happen to The Biggest Loser? Prior to the Olympic break it was getting high 3's, sometimes low 4's in the demos. It looks like the break as hurt BL more than any other show.

Chuck Dips a Little; Rest of NBC Lineup Down

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/03/09/tv-ratings-chuck-drops-a-touch-two-and-a-half-men-hits-highs-nbc-dead-last/44300

Chuck averaged 6.31million viewers and a 2.3 in the demos. That's down 400k viewers, but only 0.1 in the demo. The demo is all that really matters.

There's some discussion on the boards about what constituted the ratings drop. Some mentioned House returning. Some mentioned CBS comedies, namely Rules of Engagement (RoE) having a better retention rate than Accidentally on Purpose (AoP), and my favorite (not really): blaming the ratings drop on the last two episodes of Chuck.

People keep on forgetting that House was a repeat last week. RoE retaining more of HIMYM could've hurt Chuck, but looking at the ratings it looks to be a non-issue. Chuck is still getting roughly the same pre-RoE debuting.

Regarding last week's episode, that episode was much more well received than 3.07, so I don't buy the argument that people hated the last two episodes equaling ratings drop. 3.07 had a 2.2 demo and 3.09 had a 2.3. If people really hated the episode, it would've dropped below 2.2. So the argument "people hating the last 2 episodes= ratings drop" doesn't hold much water.

The Bachelor was getting demos that DWTS would've got. It's comparable. It's the viewership numbers that are much higher because of the older demographic watching, and that could hurt Chuck. However, I don't see Chuck's ratings moving much either way. It will stay in the 2.3-2.5 range all season.

****************

NBC has bigger problems than worrying about Chuck. The return of Trauma (1.4 demo) and L&O moving to the 10pm (1.5 demo) cratered in the ratings. what's surprising is that L&O is getting lower ratings compared to its Friday time slot. I attribute that to competition. CSI: Miami pretty much has the same audience with L&O.

CBS and FOX are doing their customary thing, finishing 1 and 2 for the night.







And I just noticed this. Chuck actually has more competition this season, namely from CBS. BBT/HIMYM last year- 3.6, HIMYM/RoE- 3.75 demos. 

The good thing though, Chuck is up compared to the second half of last year, up 0.15 in the demos and 400k viewers. Thanks to snickrz for those numbers. 

THR: Bromstad on Fall Pilots, Chuck, Heroes

http://www.thrfeed.com/2010/03/qa-nbcs-angela-bromstad.html?

Here's the relevant Chuck info:

THR: "Chuck" -- a bit surprising on Mondays?

Bromstad: Pleasant surprise, and they're doing great work.

THR: So fans presumably won't have to buy Subway sandwiches again this year?

Bromstad: Well, it's got to maintain, and it depends on development.

It isn't much, but when you compare to the other bubble shows that were mentioned, Heroes and Community, Bromstad seems much more hopeful with Chuck.

I think it's interesting that she's "pleasantly surprised" at how Chuck is performing. It's probably due to the fact that NBC had low expectations for the show, and they didn't expect Chuck to be their highest-rated show on Monday. Add to the fact that Chuck is the 2nd highest rated drama on NBC, behind Law & Order: SVU. It seems like that Chuck has to maintain its ratings (2.4+) and it looks good for season 4.

The statement "depends on development" is just executive talk. That's mention every year, so there's nothing to be worried about with that statement.

Other things to note:

1. 10 pm hour will likely be all scripted, at least Monday through Thursday. 
2. NBC plans on picking up 5 or 6 dramas, and 4 or 5 comedies
3. NBC has a good working relationship with Warner Bros. 
4. JJ Abrams pilot 'Undercovers' looks good for a pick-up
5. Thursday comedy block will likely stay in tact  

So what does this all mean for Chuck? The outlook is hopeful =D

'Parenthood' Premieres with OK Ratings

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/03/03/tv-ratings-american-idol-leads-easy-fox-win-parenthood-debuts-modestly-lost-falls/43694

Parenthood averaged 8.1 million viewers and a 3.1 in the demo. That's fairly good for NBC, but with the amount of promotion that NBC put into it, they will no doubt be disappointed with those numbers. Will Parenthood be able to hold on to those numbers? Shows usually fall after the premiere, so the question: how far will it fall?

Chuck Returns With Uptick in Ratings

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/03/02/tv-ratings-back-to-fourth-place-for-nbc-big-numbers-for-the-bachelor-and-the-big-bang-theory/43503?utm_campaign=WP-TWITTER&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitter

Chuck averaged 6.7 million viewers and a 2.4/6 in the demos. That's a healthy increase from the last new episode 3 weeks ago. House was in repeat for FOX, but everything else was original.

Ever since Chuck debuted on NBC, NBC has not been able to find a show that fits well with Chuck. I don't know why NBC thought Heroes was a good fit with Chuck, but that did not prove to be true this season. LO has a totally different viewership, and that shows in its demo. The demo for LO is much older, hence why LO has a higher viewership number but dropped in the 18-49 demos.

The good thing about last night's ratings is that we probably have seen a floor, but we'll know more for sure next week. Next week will have all originals so we may see a slight drop in the ratings. However, the following week, HIMYM will be in repeat and ABC will be airing a 20/20 special, which should help Chuck out.

Things are looking good for Chuck.

Chuck Ratings Predictions (and other Ratings news)

Today marks the day Chuck returns from a 2 week hiatus thanks to the Olympics. If anyone had been following the ratings for the Olympics, NBC has been on a roll. Sadly, there was a lack of promos but that's understandable because NBC had to fix the 10pm hour and promote its new shows.

Having said that, I'd guess Chuck will get 6.7 million and a 2.4 in the demos. Is that too optimistic? Nah lol =P But I wouldn't be surprised if it's lower than that. The next two weeks will be key though as to see where the show will be headed in terms of ratings.

And other news, the USA/Canada gold medal game drew huge ratings, drawing 27.6 million viewers, the most watched Hockey game since the 1980 "Miracle on Ice" game. Here's the press release via TVByTheNumbers.

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/03/01/usa-vs-canada-gold-medal-hockey-most-watched-game-in-30-years-with-27-6-million/43413

As a hockey fan (Go LA Kings!!) I'm ecstatic with those numbers. Hockey should at least be on par with popularity with baseball, and I just hope this game exposes more people to how hockey games can be.