Monday, May 16, 2011

FOX 2011-2012 Fall Schedule- An Analysis



FOX FALL 2011 PRIMETIME SCHEDULE
MONDAY
8:00-9:00 PM    TERRA NOVA (new)
9:00-10:00 PM   HOUSE
TUESDAY
8:00-9:00 PM    GLEE
9:00-9:30 PM    NEW GIRL (wt) (new)
9:30-10:00 PM   RAISING HOPE
WEDNESDAY
8:00-9:30 PM    THE X FACTOR Performance Show (new)
9:30-10:00 PM   I HATE MY TEENAGE DAUGHTER (wt) (new)
THURSDAY
8:00-9:00 PM    THE X FACTOR Results Show (new)
9:00-10:00 PM   BONES
FRIDAY
8:00-9:00 PM    KITCHEN NIGHTMARES
9:00-10:00 PM   FRINGE
SATURDAY
8:00-8:30 PM    COPS
8:30-9:00 PM    COPS
9:00-10:00 PM   ENCORES / AMERICA’S MOST WANTED (specials)
SUNDAY
7:00-7:30 PM    THE OT (NFL post-game)
7:30-8:00 PM    THE CLEVELAND SHOW
8:00-8:30 PM    THE SIMPSONS
8:30-9:00 PM    ALLEN GREGORY (new)
9:00-9:30 PM    FAMILY GUY
9:30-10:00 PM   AMERICAN DAD

FOX MIDSEASON 2012 PRIMETIME SCHEDULE
MONDAY
8:00-9:00 PM    HOUSE
9:00-10:00 PM   ALCATRAZ (new)
TUESDAY
8:00-9:00 PM    GLEE
9:00-9:30 PM    NEW GIRL (wt) (new)
9:30-10:00 PM   RAISING HOPE
WEDNESDAY
8:00-9:30 PM    AMERICAN IDOL Performance Show
9:30-10:00 PM   I HATE MY TEENAGE DAUGHTER (wt) (new)
THURSDAY
8:00-9:00 PM    AMERICAN IDOL Results Show
9:00-10:00 PM   THE FINDER (new) / BONES (spring)
FRIDAY
8:00-9:00 PM    KITCHEN NIGHTMARES
9:00-10:00 PM   FRINGE
SATURDAY
8:00-8:30 PM    COPS
8:30-9:00 PM    COPS
9:00-10:00 PM   ENCORES / AMERICA’S MOST WANTED (specials)
SUNDAY
7:00-7:30 PM    ANIMATION DOMINATION (encores)
7:30-8:00 PM    THE CLEVELAND SHOW
8:00-8:30 PM    THE SIMPSONS
8:30-9:00 PM    NAPOLEON DYNAMITE (new)
9:00-9:30 PM    FAMILY GUY
9:30-10:00 PM   BOB’S BURGERS

Analysis:

*The problem with FOX in the fall is that they have baseball playoffs, so their schedule is going to get screwed up once playoffs start.*

Monday:

Yeah, when Chuck had to suffer for years going up against House, they finally moved when NBC moved Chuck. !@##@!#$&^%

Now that’s out, it is a little surprising that FOX will be moving House to the 9 p.m. hour and slot new dino-drama Terra Nova to open the night. Looks like Fox feels that the show has enough appeal to families and buzz (Steven Spielberg and dinosaurs) to start off the night. Is it a bit of a risk? Yes, but it could also be a shrewd move. If Terra Nova does well, that will help out House, which has been dropping in the ratings the past couple of seasons.   

Weird thing is that FOX will move House back to 8 p.m. during the spring to act as a lead-in to a new serialized drama Alcatraz. I guess it shows you that FOX is more worried about Alcatraz succeeding.

Prediction:

Terra Nova will get a big sampling because of the pedigree behind the show (Spielberg) and dinosaurs. House should do a little bit better at the 9 p.m. hour where the show is more suited anyway. But will the slow erosion continue next season?

TERRA NOVA: 3.0
 HOUSE: 3.5

Tuesday:

FOX will once again try to establish a comedy block following Glee. FOX did not have much success in launching comedies, with only mediocre-rated Raising Hope returning. Glee has seen its ratings drop a tiny bit compared to the fall. Are people getting tired of the show? I don’t think so. Glee is still one of the more higher rated shows on FOX, and the show is a cash cow for the network (music downloads on Itunes). FOX is taking another stab with comedies by airing New Girl, starring Zooey Deschanel. This is one of FOX’s more buzzed about pilots, so the network has high hopes for this single-cam comedy.

Prediction:

Glee will anchor the night at 8 p.m. and should do well in the fall when more people are watching TV. The problem is that the show has not been a good launching pad for comedies, if last year was any indication. Will New Girls be more mainstream? We’ll see. Raising Hope is a more mainstream show, but that didn’t do gangbusters in the ratings.

GLEE: 3.8
NEW GIRL: 2.5
RAISING HOPE: 2.0

Wednesday:

Simon Cowell being an a-hole? Check. Will people tune in to see him act like an ass? Check. FOX finally brings The X Factor to its schedule. Not a big fan of reality taking up this much space on a network. But it does plug holes into their lineup.

FOX will use X Factor to launch another comedy, I Hate My Teenage Daughter, a multi-cam comedy. This is another much buzzed about pilot. FOX has never had success in the multi-cam genre (or single cam mind you) so this is FOX’s attempt to establish comedies in their lineup.  

Predictions:

The X Factor will no doubt be a huge hit for FOX, but how big of a hit? I doubt it will be big as Idol but it will be huge nonetheless. The bigger question is the comedy following X Factor. It will lose most of the lead-in, but Daughter should rate respectably. It will have to stand on its own without lead-in support to see if it is indeed a big hit.

THE X FACTOR: 6.0
I HATE MY TEENAGE DAUGHTER: 2.8

Thursday:

Following the Idol format, The X Factor will air its second night on Thursday 8 p.m. The schedule for Thursday will remain the same as it was in the spring, with Bones and its spinoff The Finder airing in this slot. FOX strengthen their Thursday schedule in the spring, and it has worked out for them. It will be interesting to see how The Finder does when Bones goes on hiatus to accommodate Emily Deschanel’s pregnancy.

That said, I wished FOX would use the 9 p.m. slot to launch a new drama, such as Terra Nova to give it the best chances of succeeding. Bones is entering its 7th season and it has shown in the past it can stand on its own.  

Prediction: FOX will be mostly stable for the night, with The X Factor anchoring the night. Expect monster ratings too on this night. Bones will do Bones ratings, but The Finder will be a toss-up. Will Bones fans flock to the new show? I say yes, as many fans were happy with the backdoor pilot that aired several weeks ago.

THE X FACTOR: 5.5
BONES: 3.2
THE FINDER (mid season): 2.8

Friday:

Angry chefs and alternate realities. FOX is keeping their spring Friday schedule intact. It has done OK for them, though Fringe has dropped to a level where FOX has to be a tiny bit worried about. It squanders its lead-in, though these two shows are incompatible. Kitchen Nightmares is a reality show and it does reasonably well on a Friday.

Prediction: Expect roughly the same ratings it was getting in spring for both shows. Maybe see a tiny uptick since it will be the fall.

KITCHEN NIGHTMARES: 1.7
FRINGE: 1.4

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