NBC 2011-2012 Fall Schedule- An Analysis

I will be doing an analysis of each network’s prospective fall schedules for the 2011-2012 Fall TV Season. NBC will be the most in-depth since I’m partial to NBC. Most of my favorite shows have been on this network. I’ve also been following it the longest.

First up, NBC.

Here is their preliminary fall schedule:

NBC FALL 2011-12 SCHEDULE (New programs in UPPER CASE)

MONDAY
8-10 p.m. – The Sing-Off
10-11 p.m. – THE PLAYBOY CLUB

TUESDAY
8-10 p.m. – The Biggest Loser
10-11 p.m. – Parenthood

WEDNESDAY
8-8:30 p.m. – UP ALL NIGHT
8:30-9 p.m. – FREE AGENTS
9-10 p.m. -- Harry’s Law
10-11 p.m. -- Law & Order: Special Victims Unit

THURSDAY
8-8:30 p.m. – Community
8:30-9 p.m. -- Parks and Recreation
9-9:30 p.m. – The Office
9:30-10 p.m. – WHITNEY
10-11 p.m. – PRIME SUSPECT

FRIDAY
8-9 p.m. – Chuck
9-10 p.m. – GRIMM
10-11 p.m. – Dateline NBC

SATURDAY
Encore programming

SUNDAY
7- 8:15 p.m. -- Football Night in America
8:15-11:30 p.m. -- NBC Sunday Night Football

NBC 2012 MID-SEASON HIGHLIGHTS

SUNDAY
7-8 p.m. – Dateline NBC
8-10 p.m. – The Celebrity Apprentice
10-11 p.m. – THE FIRM

MONDAY
8-10 p.m. – The Voice
10-11 p.m. – SMASH

Analysis

Monday:

NBC will have a whole new Monday. NBC, for the past two seasons, has floundered big on this night. In fact, it is one of their weakest nights, including Fridays. NBC is looking to stabilize the night with reality and a new period drama.

The biggest surprise is NBC extending The Sing Off to 2 hours. The past two seasons it aired 6 episodes over a 2-week span in December. It was used more of a holiday filler. However, when it returned for its second season the show did respectable numbers, averaging a 2.5 in the 18-49 demo. In its current form, I don’t see how the show sustains that, so we’ll probably see some minor tweaks (more groups to perform?) to the show.

Following The Sing Off, the 10 p.m. hour will belong to bunnies. No, not furry, cuddly ones, but scantily clad Playboy Bunnies. The Playboy Club is a period piece in the mold of Mad Men. Mad Men, for all its awards and praise among TV critics, has never been a huge hit for AMC. In fact, it was nearly canceled after its first season. So NBC (and ABC w/ its similar period piece Pan Am) will be taking quite the risk with this type of show. People will no doubt be very interested in this show based on name recognition alone.

Prediction (w/ demos): NBC should be able to improve on the night as a whole. While The Sing Off aired against weak competition, it also aired when people were tuning out of TV since it was the end of the fall TV season (and holidays as well). The Playboy Club will have strong initial interest. How it will do after that is anyone’s guess.

The Sing-Off: 2.3
THE PLAYBOY CLUB: 2.5

Tuesday:

No need to break up something that is working, right? It has been one of NBC’s more stable and highest rated night. While I do agree with that premise, I do have some minor beef with this lineup.

The Biggest Loser is still at two hours long. The show has been waning in the ratings the past couple of years, yet it is still one of NBC’s better performing shows. So I can see why NBC would leave the show as is. Also, it does much better in the fall than spring.

Parenthood stays on at 10 p.m. This is my minor gripe. While Parenthood has done OK in this slot, it squanders most of its lead-in. The show will be entering its 3^rd season come fall. By this time it should have been able to hold its own. The season finale saw a nice jump to 2.5, but it was averaging close to 2.0 the rest of the season. NBC would have been better off airing a new show in this slot to give it the best sampling (i.e Prime Suspect) or a show that needs help in the young demo (Harry’s Law).  

Prediction: We will see neither notable increases nor decreases in ratings. Both shows should be able to slightly increase their ratings compared to what it was getting during spring. Other than that, NBC is set for this night.

The Biggest Loser: 2.5
Parenthood: 2.1

Wednesday:

Last season NBC completely gave up on the 8 and 9 p.m. hours after various shows failed. Undercovers and Law & Oder: Los Angeles failed to attract an audience. Minute to Win It was a half-assed attempt to save the night. In the spring, NBC had to resort to airing repeats at 9 p.m. For a major network, that is plain embarrassing and show you how dreadful it was for NBC this year.

Another big gamble NBC is taking is launching a new comedy block to start off the night. This new comedy block will have some major headwinds to endure as it will go up against ABC’s comedy block and the arrival of Fox’s The X Factor. Up All Night (Christina Applegate, Will Arnett) and Free Agents (Hank Azaria) have name recognition, but will have the tough (but not impossible) task of establishing a beachhead for another comedy block. Both shows have fairly well-known actors.

Harry’s Law will move to its new slot at 9 p.m. The show was a self starter, debuting pretty well with 12 million viewers but a very low 2.3 demo. That is one very old skew. It dropped for its finale to 8 million and a 1.4 demo. However, the show should do better at this slot, with its competition mainly from similar genre show Criminal Minds. The show should pair well with Law & Order: SVU, who stays in its original spot at 10 p.m.

Prediction: NBC will no doubt do better than the 1.0 Minute was getting in the 8-10 p.m. hours. It will improve, but will it be something NBC is happy or content with? We’ll know in the fall.

UP ALL NIGHT: 2.0
FREE AGENTS :1.8
Harry’s Law: 1.8)
Law & Order: Special Victims Unit: 2.6

Thursday:

Thursday 8-10 p.m. has been a comedy staple for NBC for quite some time. This spring, they tried airing comedies at the 10 p.m. hour. While it didn’t do too badly, it was hardly a success, even by NBC standards. So I’m happy NBC is doing away with the 10 p.m. comedy block.

Community stays in its 8 p.m. slot, followed by Parks and Recreation. While both shows are lowly rated, they do have a loyal fan base, and they do provide a baseline in which the network can build. Going up against Idol and soon to debut X Factor, it has held its own rather well. Parks should provide a better 8:30 p.m. show than its two predecessors, two shows that were canceled in the same season.

It will be interesting to see how The Office does without Steve Carrell. My guess is that they will find a high-profile name to replace him. A new show will follow The Office, which will be NBC’s foray back to the multi-cam comedies that made the network so successful in the past. Whitney will have the plum spot after The Office, though on paper these two shows are totally different.

The 10 p.m. hour is NBC’s return to drama. Prime Suspect, a remake of the British version with the same name and starred Helen Mirren, will have the tough task of restoring NBC’s honor at this hour. This hour was long a prime spot for dramas such as ER. How the show will do is anyone’s guess. The show is mostly character-driven (a la House) so appeal of the show will hinge on the lead, Maria Bello.

Prediction: The Office will no doubt see a drop, but how much is a key question. The 8 p.m. hour should do OK by NBC’s standards, but they cannot drop much. Whitney is supposedly a more mainstream comedy, but it will probably rate modestly. Prime Suspect will get a good sampling, but will probably skew old.

Community: 1.9
Parks and Recreation: 2.0
The Office: 3.5
WHITNEY: 2.8
PRIME SUSPECT: 2.5

Fridays:

Ah Fridays, where shows go to die. I never liked how the networks dumped all their low-rated shows to Fridays for a slow death. However, it’s been nice to see the networks try to make Fridays relevant again (we’re waiting ABC). It was these same networks that made this night a wasteland in the first place. So it’s refreshing to see NBC air two hours of scripted shows on Fridays.

Chuck. One of my favorite shows of all time and NBC was amazing and classy enough to give the show a proper send off with a final 13 episode order. And of course, WB wanting more episodes for syndication didn’t hurt either. Chuck will be entering its final season, so that should help get back some fans it lost the last 4 years. Since Chuck has a very dedicated base, it serves as a nice baseline where a show can grow out of.

Which brings us to Grimm. On paper, this show could pair well with Chuck since both seem to be geek-friendly. A supernatural cop show could be intriguing, but the past has shown that Sci Fi TV shows have had a hard time becoming mainstream hits. NBC could very well be dumping their “least worthy” pilot to Fridays, but NBC did pick up this pilot for a reason, so they do see some upside in this show, especially paired with Chuck.

10 p.m. will be Dateline. Nothing new here.   

Prediction: It will be key for Chuck to keep its viewers from Monday. Most shows will lose viewers once move to Friday, but Chuck has the benefit of starting the season on Friday. Also helping it will be the notion this will be the final season. But ratings for Chuck are a moot point. It will be a bigger issue for the show that follows it. If Grimm can grow out of Chuck, it has some potential.

Chuck: 1.2
GRIMM: 1.4
Dateline NBC: 1.3

Mid Season:

NBC is looking to make a big push during mid season. The reason? They have the Golden Globes, NFL playoffs, and a little sporting event called the Super Bowl. This assuming football is even played this season.

For mid season NBC is holding back its biggest show, The Voice, and its most buzzed about pilot, the Steven Spielberg-created musical Smash. Both shows will take over Mondays in the spring.

NBC also has shows in reserve, the Inception-style Awake, and comedies Are You There Vodka? Its Me Chelsea, Bent, and BFF.