Over the weekend, TVBTN posted the dates in which the broadcast networks will announce their schedule for the 2010-2011 TV season. It is getting to that time of year where pilots will begin filming, and in a few weeks networks will start watching those pilots. Come May, we'll have a good idea as to what the networks are favoring and how the pilot development is doing.
First off though, an update on the ratings from last Friday and why WDYTYA will be renewed.
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/03/20/tv-ratings-cbs-wins-with-march-madness-who-do-you-think-you-are-kitchen-nightmares-perform-solidly/45563
No surprise that CBS won the night with college basketball. FOX did well with Kitchen Nightmares with a 1.9 in the demo. What's somewhat surprising is how NBC's Who Do You Think You Are? is doing. It got a 1.7 in the demos and over 7 million viewers. It's been fairly steady ever since its premiere 3 weeks ago, staying in the 1.7-1.8 range. While WDYTYA is a reality show (and I know a lot of people hate reality TV), I must say that this show is entertaining and very interesting. WDYTYA is a remake of a British version (very popular in Britain). The British version started off slowly but grew into a hit. WDYTYA looks to be doing the same.
Now, because I'm a fan of Chuck, the most logical question what does this mean for Chuck? At this moment, it's really hard to say. The 1.9 that Chuck got the past 2 weeks is horrible and would definitely get the show canceled. The question is whether this was a blip on the radar screen or something more worrying.
It's very hard to determine what NBC will do with its lineup. The Marriage Ref has been doing fairly well on Thursday, getting a 2.8 in the demo. It looks like the show will stay around for next season. Same goes for WDYTYA. But now we have to look at NBC's pilot orders:
http://www.thefutoncritic.com/devwatch.aspx?series=&network=nbc&daycode=2&statuscode=1&genre=drama&studio=
NBC has ordered 10 drama and 11 comedy pilots. remember not all will be picked up and the pick-up rate of pilots are low. However, this is NBC and they've been on record saying they'll be looking to pick up 5 or 6 drama pilots and 4 or 5 comedy pilots. Of course, this depends on how their pilots develop.
NBC (and all other broadcast networks) have 19 hours to fill. For NBC during the fall, 4 of those hours are taken away because of Sunday night Football. That leaves NBC with 15 hours to fill.
Sure pickups:
Law & Order: SVU
Law & Order <---- Based on comments from Angela Bromstad
The Biggest Loser (2 hours)
The Office/30Rock/Community/ Parks & Rec. (2 hours)
Dateline
Looking Good for Renewal:
The Marriage Ref
Who Do You Think You Are?
Celebrity Apprentice (The original "Apprentice" is being rebooted)
One The Bubble:
Chuck
Parenthood
Heroes (only because Chuck has dipped to Heroes levels)
Minute to Win It
Canceled:
Trauma
Mercy
With 9 hours seemingly filled in the fall, that leaves NBC with 6 hours to fill. Here's what a prospective lineup could look like. remember, this is only speculation on my part.
Monday
8- New
9- New
10- New
Tuesday
8- Biggest Loser
9- Biggest Loser
10- New
Wed
8- Marriage Ref and/or The Apprentice (reboot)
9- New
10- LO: SVU
Thurs.
8- Comedy/ Comedy (Community/Parks & Rec mid season)
9- The Office/ 30 Rock
10- New
Fri
8- WDYTYA? or New Reality
9- Law & Order
10- Dateline
Sun (after football)
7- Dateline
8- Reality/ New Show
9- Celeb. Apprentice
10- Celeb. Apprentice
I believe that NBC will want to debut as many new shows as possible. Angela Bromstad was on record saying that 10pm will all be scripted. That could change, of course, but I'll take her word. The above schedule has NBC debuting 6 hours of new shows. I believe 5 hours will be dramas and NBC will try to launch another comedy block. 6 hours may seem like a lot, but ABC this fall debuted 8 hours of new programming.
Now some may ask: "But what happens when a show fails?" I believe that's where the "bubble" shows come into play. This year, NBC did not make contingency plans in case Leno failed. And it has showed in the schedule. NBC had to order more episodes of lowly rated shows (Trauma and Mercy) and they ran out of shows to fill in gaps (see LO:SVU repeat at 9pm Wednesdays). NBC won't make that same mistake next year.
NBC will need to have shows for mid-season. Does that include Chuck and/or Parenthood? It's really hard to determine at this moment. Chuck got hit hard the past two weeks and Parenthood has not shown its ratings have hit a bottom yet. It may seem logical for NBC to renew these two shows, but since the ratings are low, it's hard to determine what NBC will do. And even Heroes looks good to NBC right now. I hate to say this, but if Chuck and heroes are getting the same ratings, Heroes will win out because the show generates more money from international distribution and DVD sales, in which all the $$$ goes to NBC Universal.
For Chuck, it will come down to two things:
1. What the ratings are going to be from here on out
2. How much lower is Warner Bros. willing to go in terms of license fees.
In the coming weeks, we'll have a much clearer picture as to how the bubble shows will do and what direction NBC will head for next season.
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